Reports say Anthropic is aiming to go public in November. According to The Wall Street Journal's Sept. 18 (local time) report, it would be valued at about $2 trillion and raise up to $100 billion. Raising that much would top SpaceX ($85.7 billion) as the biggest IPO ever. That sparked a worry in the crypto market: if this much money rushes into one listing, won't money flow out of Bitcoin? In June, the month SpaceX went public, $4.5 billion did leave U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (per TFTC). Is Bitcoin really trembling before the mega IPOs?
- Anthropic's IPO: how much is confirmed?
The company has officially said one thing: on June 1 it confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It said the number of shares and the price had not been set. November, $2 trillion and $100 billion all come from reports citing anonymous sources. The timeline has also slipped twice, according to reports. Reuters said on Sept. 4 that investor marketing would start in mid-October at the earliest, and reports of a November target followed.
Other mega IPOs are lining up too. SpaceX began its investor roadshow on June 4, set its IPO price on June 11 and listed on Nasdaq on June 12. It raised $75 billion, and $85.7 billion including the extra allotment. OpenAI's chief financial officer reportedly told employees the company "will be a public company in 2027" or sooner.
- Why Bitcoin holders worry
The logic goes like this. Money to buy IPO shares doesn't fall from the sky. Investors raise it by selling something they already own. The first things sold are volatile risk assets, and Bitcoin is at the front of that line.
June's numbers alone fit this worry. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.5 billion in the month, their worst month since launch. Vetle Lunde, head of research at crypto research firm K33, also said investor anticipation for hot IPOs like SpaceX's may be pushing Bitcoin's price lower.
- Day by day, the story changes
Add up when the $4.5 billion left, day by day, and the picture changes. The window when investors would line up IPO money is June 4-11, when SpaceX took investor orders and set its price. Outflows in that window were $724 million, about 16% of the total. On listing day, June 12, $85.8 million actually flowed in. The biggest outflows came at quarter-end (June 22-30), ten days after the listing: $2.25 billion, half of June's total.
Other bad news also piled up in June. Stocks sold off sharply, conflict broke out in the Middle East and oil prices rose. Rather than the IPO sucking in money, it is more likely the listing simply fell in a period when the whole market was cutting risk.
After the listing, there was little reason to switch either. On Aug. 5, SpaceX stock was 12.7% below its IPO price. Over the same period Bitcoin fell 7.5%. Anyone who sold Bitcoin to buy the IPO lost more.
- In September, as Anthropic news poured in, Bitcoin rose
In September, as reports of Anthropic's November IPO poured in, Bitcoin hit an 8-month high of $85,222 on Sept. 21, up more than 30% since Aug. 19. Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.0 billion in September through the 22nd, mostly after Sept. 17. As of Sept. 24, Bitcoin is around $84,000.
Still, so far there is only news. This isn't yet the time when IPO money actually moves. Anthropic's real test is the November subscription period.
- BITPRESS Insight
A mega IPO is less a force that sets Bitcoin's direction than a one-time flow event. Money may shift for a few days during the offering. But once it's done, that money can come back to the market. In June, only 16% of the outflow came during SpaceX's offering window, and half came at quarter-end after the listing. There is little reason for Bitcoin to be shaken hard by one IPO.
So ahead of Anthropic's November offering, what to watch is not the IPO headlines but the daily flows in Bitcoin ETFs. Whether money leaves ETFs around the offering, and whether it comes back after the listing, will tell us whether Bitcoin is really trembling.
Sources
https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-delays-ipo-staging-to-november-amid-ai-fears-wsj-says-4907941
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/spacex-ipo-stock-price-roadshow-musk.html
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/anthropic-delays-ipo-launch-to-midoctober-at-earliest-reuters-reports-4890106
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-ipo-raises-85-7-142359726.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/bought-spacex-stock-bitcoin-launch-193000268.html
https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-etf-flows/june-2026
https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-etf-flows/september-2026
https://www.theblock.co/post/404324/elon-musks-spacex-ipo-could-become-bitcoins-latest-headwind
https://crypto.news/spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-wave-crypto-liquidity/
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-surges-8-month-high-114041914.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/open-ai-ipo-timing-2027-friar.html
Glossary
IPO — Initial public offering: when a company first sells shares to the public and lists on a stock exchange.
Spot Bitcoin ETF — A fund that buys and holds actual Bitcoin, tracks its price and trades like a stock. When money flows in, the manager has to buy Bitcoin.
Net outflow — When more money leaves than comes in. Net outflows from ETFs usually mean Bitcoin selling.
Subscription — Applying to buy IPO shares before the listing. In big U.S. IPOs, orders mostly come from institutional investors during the roadshow.
Roadshow — The period just before a listing when the company and its banks meet investors, pitch the company and take orders. The IPO price is set from the result.
