Tether's (the company that issues USDT, a coin that can be swapped 1-for-1 for $1) third-quarter reserve report, released Oct. 30, shows $8.37 billion worth of Bitcoin. Divided by the Sept. 30 price of $83,621 per coin, that is about 100,000 Bitcoin. CEO Paolo Ardoino recently said at a Bitcoin event in Lugano, Switzerland, "We have roughly 150,000 Bitcoin."
With a coin that promises $1 backed in part by Bitcoin, whose price swings widely, it is easy to assume that even a small drop in Bitcoin could break the $1 peg.
But the point is not whether Bitcoin is in the collateral. It is how much extra has been set aside beyond what is owed. Measured by that cushion, Bitcoin alone would have to crash a long way before $1 is at risk. The risk lies elsewhere.
- What is stacked behind each USDT?
USDT is a stablecoin that promises to be exchangeable for $1 at any time. Tether uses the dollars people pay in to buy assets, and those assets are the reserves. As of Sept. 30, reserves were $191.45 billion, while liabilities, the money owed back to USDT holders, were $183.5 billion.
Most of the reserves, $122.84 billion, are U.S. Treasuries with an average maturity under 90 days. The rest includes $19.08 billion in gold bars, $14.18 billion in secured loans (money lent against collateral) and $8.37 billion in Bitcoin. Put simply, 64% of the money behind USDT is U.S. Treasuries, the remaining cash-like assets are repurchase agreements and deposits, and Bitcoin is 4.4% of the total.
- The excess reserve is what protects the $1
The portion left after subtracting liabilities from reserves is called the excess reserve. At the end of the third quarter it was $7.95 billion, nearly double the $4.11 billion at the end of June. The figure was confirmed by the accounting firm BDO as of a single day, Sept. 30. It is an attestation that matches assets and liabilities on that day, not a full audit.
A jeonse deposit (Korea's lump-sum deposit lease) is an easy comparison. If a landlord holds about KRW 104.3 million to return a KRW 100 million deposit, the deposit can still be repaid in full even if that money shrinks by KRW 4.3 million. The difference is that Tether may have to repay a huge number of USDT holders all at once.
- If only Bitcoin falls, it would take a 95% drop
If other assets hold their value, the $8.37 billion of Bitcoin would have to shrink by $7.95 billion for the excess reserve to hit zero. That means the Bitcoin price would have to fall about 95%. Per coin, that is from $83,621 on Sept. 30 to about $4,100.
Compared with three months earlier, the difference is clear. At the end of June, Bitcoin was $58,642 and the holding was about 98,930 coins, valued at $5.8 billion. With the $4.11 billion excess reserve then, a Bitcoin drop of about 71% would have brought it to zero. Call the fall that takes the excess reserve to zero the threshold: as the excess reserve grew in the meantime, the threshold rose from 71% to 95%.
- The real risk is when the risky assets fall together
Take out the near-cash assets in the reserves, such as Treasuries, repurchase agreements (deals that lend money for one day to three months against Treasuries) and deposits, and what remains is gold, Bitcoin, stocks, secured loans and other investments. Together these risky assets total $51.87 billion.
With Treasuries unchanged, if this whole group fell by the same 15.3%, the $7.95 billion excess reserve would be zero. Looking at gold and Bitcoin alone, they total $27.45 billion, so a 29% fall in both together gives the same result. Put simply, many assets slipping a little together is more dangerous than one asset falling a lot.
The report says the $14.18 billion in secured loans is structured so that collateral exceeds the amount lent, and if it falls short, more collateral is requested or the collateral is sold to recover the money. However, the report does not say what was taken as collateral.
- Why is there a 50,000-coin gap between the CEO's 150,000 and the reserves' 100,000?
There is a 50,000-coin gap between the 150,000 Ardoino mentioned and the roughly 100,000 in the reserve report. He did not say where this Bitcoin is held or when it was bought.
Tether has explained that its company investments are kept separate from the USDT reserves. If so, the 50,000-coin gap could sit outside the money used to repay USDT, but it has not been confirmed that this explains the gap. For a USDT holder, the Bitcoin to count is the 100,000 listed in the report.
- BITPRESS Insight
Measuring risk only by the fact that a stablecoin's collateral includes Bitcoin tends to exaggerate it. For USDT, Bitcoin is 4.4% of reserves, and the excess reserve covers 95% of its value.
A more important number is the excess reserve divided by total risky assets. That ratio is the threshold for when risky assets fall together. It was 8.7% at the end of June and rose to 15.3% at the end of September. The ratio rises when gold and Bitcoin prices go up and falls again when they drop together.
Whether a stablecoin can hold $1 depends less on what is in the collateral than on what percentage of the risky assets is covered by the cushion set aside beyond what is owed, which can serve as a single yardstick.
Sources
https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/7nQYtcoP9GxIUFSyro2dGK/8d0521470b9e99c8c0831019cabea4ee/ISAE_3000R_-_Opinion_Tether_International_Financial_Figure_30-09-2026.pdf
https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/2kYf7r64h3tzwiu6F0CbUB/2997abd2f11ecea74a21528048b50707/Opinion___Report_-_Tether_International_Financial_Figure_30-06-2026.pdf
https://tether.io/news/tether-generates-1-5-billion-in-q3-net-operating-profit-as-reserve-buffer-doubles-to-almost-8-billion/
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/11/03/tether-holds-150-000-bitcoin-worth-usd11-5-billion-ceo-paolo-ardoino-says
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/tether-holds-150000-bitcoin-ceo-says
Glossary
Stablecoin — A coin that promises to be exchangeable for a steady value, like $1 per coin, and keeps matching assets in reserve.
Reserves — Assets such as Treasuries, gold and Bitcoin that a stablecoin issuer buys to have money ready to repay holders.
Excess reserves — What remains of the reserves after subtracting the money owed to holders (liabilities); a buffer that absorbs losses first when asset values fall.
Repurchase agreement — A deal in which money is lent for anywhere from a day to a few months against Treasuries as collateral and then paid back.
Attestation report — A report in which an accounting firm checks that assets and liabilities match on one specific date, unlike an audit, which examines a full year.
BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.
