“We said 5,800 and it's already there”: Daishin Securities caught off guard… Samsung Securities' 5,700 upper end also already exceeded

[BITPRESS] The KOSPI broke above 5,800 for the first time ever on the 20th, closing at 5,808.53. As the index sets record highs day after day on KRW 1.6 trillion in net institutional buying, brokerages' KOSPI targets are being breached one after another.

In particular, Daishin Securitiesreleased a report on Feb. 2 titled “2026 KOSPI target raised to 5,800p,” but that level was touched just three weeks later. Daishin Securities strategist Lee Kyung-min raised the target citing “semiconductor-led earnings forecasts and a level-up in forward EPS,” but the market rose much faster than expected.

Samsung Securitiesalso put the fair KOSPI band for February at 5,100~5,700ptin its Jan. 29 report ‘Korean Stock Market Outlook and Strategy,’ but the index is already more than 100 points above the upper end. Samsung Securities stressed valuation appeal, noting that “global COE fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 9.2%,” but the market has soared past it.

📊 Brokerage target status as of today's (Feb. 20) close

Table

Copy

🔴 “Targets breached”… the dilemma of conservative brokerages

What stands out most is that relatively conservative brokerages such as Daishin Securitiesand Samsung Securities have already been overtaken by the market. Daishin Securities' 5,800 was a ‘forward EPS level-up’ scenario reflecting earnings improvements at top market-cap stocks as of Feb. 2, but the market topped it in just 18 days.

Samsung Securities, in its Jan. 29 report, presented “February KOSPI outlook: 5,100–5,700 pt,” and the upper end was broken in just three weeks. Samsung Securities' research center said at the time that the range “reflects a lower global COE and improved earnings,” but the market is now well above that level.

Meritz Securitiesdid not have a recent KOSPI target that could be confirmed in search results, but given that it mentioned “KOSPI breaking 5,000” in joint content with LS Securities director Yeom Seung-hwan on Feb. 19, it appears to need an update now that the index is well past 5,800.

🚀 The “7,000 club” is still a safe zone… upgrades keep coming

Now above 5,800, the KOSPI is closing in on the ‘7,000 club’ targets of Hyundai Motor Securities (6,500/7,500), Hana Securities (7,900), NH Investment & Securities (7,300), Korea Investment & Securities (7,250), Yuanta Securities (7,100), KB Securities (7,500) and others.

In particular, Hyundai Motor Securitiespresented a base-case scenario of 6,500 and a bull case of 7,500 in a Feb. 9 report, citing “AI investment, supply shortages and improving profits at Korea's Big Two.” With the index now past 5,800, reaching 6,500 is seen as possible.

Hana Securitiesset the highest target in Korea at 7,900, based on a scenario of “KRW 457 trillion in 2026 net profit for KOSPI-listed companies.” That is KRW 127 trillion above its previous forecast of KRW 330 trillion, and the key rationale is that 96% of the increase came from the semiconductor sector.

⚠️ Brokerages: “An earnings-driven market confirmed… not short-term overheating”

Brokerages whose targets have been breached are rushing to raise their forecasts. Daishin Securitieshas not yet issued a further upgrade since its 5,800 call, but an update is expected soon given market conditions.

NH Investment & Securitiespresented 7,300 on Feb. 19, calling the market “an expansion phase in which corporate earnings growth and multiple expansion are happening at the same time.” Kim Byung-yeon, head of research at NH Investment & Securities, explained: “If PBR reaches 2 times, higher than Japan, the index could hit 6,300; applying the emerging-market average of 2.2 times, it could reach 7,280.”

Korea Investment & Securitiesraised its KOSPI target band for this year again to 4,900–7,250 points in a Feb. 20 report. Analyst Kim Dae-jun said, “As of the 19th, 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) came to 576 points, up 40.5% from the start of the year,” adding, “Considering the possibility of further upward revisions to chip earnings as the AI industry develops, we applied 605 points, 5% above the existing EPS, to the upper-end scenario and multiplied it by a fair price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 12 to arrive at 7,250 points.”

📉 “Corrections are buying opportunities”… market experts' advice

With the KOSPI above 5,800, some argue it is overheating in the short term, but most brokerages stress that this is an “earnings-driven market” and see corrections as buying opportunities.

Cho Soo-hong, head of the research center at NH Investment & Securities, stressed that “tariff uncertainty, the controversy over the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks are short-term variables, not long-term factors,” adding that “volatility is expected to rise during the first quarter along with profit-taking after the sharp rally early in the year, but an approach that keeps a buying stance without being shaken is needed.”

Kim Dong-won, head of the research center at KB Securities, also said that “KOSPI breaking 5,000 is closer to the early phase of a structural rise than to overheating driven by short-term liquidity,” adding that “earnings growth centered on semiconductors and the government's capital market revitalization policies are supporting the lower end of valuations.”

💡 Conclusion: 5,800 is a new starting line… getting ready for the “7,000 era”

With the KOSPI breaking above 5,800, brokerages' targets have already split in two. Daishin Securities (5,800)and Samsung Securities (5,700) and other conservative forecasts have already been exceeded, while Hana Securities (7,900), NH Investment & Securities (7,300), Hyundai Motor Securities (7,500) and other aggressive forecasts are emerging as the market's new benchmark.

The question is whether 5,800 can become a ‘starting line’ rather than a ‘target.’ As long as structural momentum such as the chip supercycle, expanding AI investment and corporate value-up policies stays alive, brokerages' 7,000 forecasts are likely to be taken not as mere optimism but as ‘earnings-based scenarios.’

However, fatigue from the short-term surge past 5,800 is building, so it is worth keeping open the possibility of a correction around the 5,400–5,500 level. With Daishin Securities' 5,800 already broken, some analysts say the next support could be the 5,500 level, the previous upper end.

BITPRESS Insight

KOSPI 7,000 is no longer a ‘dream’; it is a number that could become reality the moment the valuation framework for the leading chip stocks changes. On 12-month forward PER as of mid-February, Samsung Electronics (about 9 times) and SK hynix (about 9–10 times) trade at a strikingly large multiple gap to global leaders TSMC (about 25–26 times) and Nvidia (about 25–30 times on a non-GAAP basis). Under the simple assumption that earnings forecasts stay unchanged, if only their PER were re-rated to ‘TSMC levels,’ both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix would, on paper, have room to expand their market caps by about 2.5–3 timesfrom current levels. Given that the two stocks account for an overwhelming share of the KOSPI's market cap, this PER re-rating scenario itself becomes a structural basis supporting the KOSPI 7,000 target. In the end, the key is whether this is a ‘real PER expansion’ backed by earnings or a ‘bubble’ running ahead on expectations, and first-quarter earnings releases and guidance are likely to be the watershed that draws that line.