On Sept. 23, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.15 percentage point in a single day, from 4.96% the day before to close at 5.11%, its highest level since 2007. Bitcoin, which had been above $87,000 that morning, fell below $84,000 within an hour of the economic data release. $237 million of long positions were forcibly liquidated in a single hour that day (CoinGlass).
Looked at this far, the formula seems simple: when rates go up, Bitcoin goes down. But just a week earlier, the opposite happened. The 10-year yield was already at 5%, yet Bitcoin rose sharply. Do the two really always move in opposite directions?
- Why rising rates put Bitcoin at a disadvantage
The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest you earn by lending to the U.S. government for 10 years. Because there is almost no risk of not being paid back, it is the baseline return on money and the benchmark for every other investment. If that rate is 5%, you earn 5% a year just by buying Treasuries and doing nothing else.
Bitcoin pays no interest. People hold it on the expectation that it will rise. In a world where Treasuries pay 5%, holding on to that expectation costs more. Rising rates also make borrowing more expensive, so people who borrowed to bet on Bitcoin going up feel the pressure first. That is why, in theory, the two move in opposite directions.
- What happened on Sept. 23
The trigger was U.S. economic data. The September composite PMI, which tracks U.S. business activity, came in at 58.4, the fastest growth since July 2021. When the economy runs this hot, worries grow that the Federal Reserve could raise rates further. The bond market reacted first, and the 10-year yield jumped 0.15 percentage point in one day.
Bitcoin fell below $84,000 about an hour after the release. Debt made the drop bigger. When prices fall, long positions that borrowed to bet on a rise are forcibly closed one after another, and that forced selling pushes prices down again. $237 million of long positions were forcibly liquidated in a single hour that day (CoinGlass).
- A week earlier, it was the opposite
On Sept. 15, the U.S. Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, a bill setting rules for the crypto market. The next day, Sept. 16, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75% to 4%. The 10-year yield closed at 5.00% to 5.01% on Sept. 15, 16 and 18 (only Sept. 17 closed at 4.94%), its first closes in the 5% range since July 2007.
Despite the pile of bad news, Bitcoin climbed from a Sept. 15 close of $75,584 to $87,397 on Sept. 21. Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at Hilbert Group, said the rejection of the bill and the rate hike had both already been expected, meaning the bad news was priced in ahead of time. On Sept. 21 alone, $999 million flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- By the numbers, the two move opposite only now and then
The correlation coefficient measures how closely two assets move together. At 1 they always move in the same direction, at -1 always in opposite directions, and at 0 they are unrelated. As of Sept. 21, the correlation between Bitcoin and the 10-year yield was -0.21 over the past 30 days and -0.04 over the past year.
That means there is only a weak tendency to move in opposite directions, and on most days they moved independently. The formula "when rates rise, Bitcoin falls" does not hold on most days.
- When do they move in opposite directions?
Put the two events side by side and the difference is clear. As Marre said, the Sept. 16 rate hike was already expected. The Sept. 23 yield spike came from economic data that came in stronger than expected. Marre also said moves in the Treasury market had a bigger effect on Bitcoin than the Fed's decisions.
Cases running the other way follow the same logic. In August, when the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double its purchases of longer-term government debt, yields fell and the dollar weakened. Bitcoin rose above $77,000 that Friday, and more than $4 billion of positions betting on a decline were liquidated. An unexpected change in rates pushed leveraged positions out on one side all at once.
- BITPRESS Insight
What Bitcoin fears is not high rates but sudden, unexpected moves in rates. The fact that rates are at 5% is already in the price. But when rates jump in a single day, people who borrowed to bet on one side are pushed out all at once, and prices swing too far.
So the relationship between the two is closer to "opposite only when surprised" than "always opposite." When rates stay high and quiet, Bitcoin follows its own flows, such as ETF money. Only on days when rates move suddenly do the two jump in opposite directions as if tied by a rope. What shook Bitcoin this week was not the number 5%, but the speed of a 0.15-percentage-point jump in one day.
Sources
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/09/23/live-updates-bitcoin-slips-under-usd86-000-as-money-rotates-into-bch-and-zec
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-falls-below-84-000-145240094.html
https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-drops-84000-long-liquidations/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/09/22/bitcoin-cleared-85000-a-week-after-the-clarity-act-died-and-the-fed-hiked-how-high-can-it-go/
https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/22/bitcoin-etfs-draw-nearly-1-billion-as-rally-pushes-btc-above-86k/
https://convextrade.com/compare/bitcoin-vs-10y-yield/correlation
https://fortune.com/2026/08/23/bitcoin-squeeze-treasury-buyback-shorts-blown-up/
Glossary
10-year Treasury yield — The interest you earn by lending to the U.S. government for 10 years. With almost no risk of not being repaid, it is the benchmark for every other investment's return.
PMI — An index built by asking companies' purchasing managers about business conditions. Above 50 means the economy is expanding.
Forced liquidation — When someone investing with borrowed money no longer has enough collateral to cover losses, the exchange automatically sells the position to close it.
Correlation coefficient — A number from -1 to 1 showing how closely two prices move together. The closer to 0, the more independently they move.
Priced in — When expected news is already reflected in prices before it is announced, so prices barely move on the day itself.
