The wallet of Mt. Gox, a former Japanese Bitcoin exchange, still holds 34,387.51 Bitcoin. That is $2.88 billion by wallet-tracking data, or about KRW 3.9 trillion at the Oct. 2 won-dollar rate (KRW 1,358.4). The deadline for returning these coins to creditors (people entitled to get money or coins back) is the 31st of this month.
If the coins are paid out by the deadline, creditors can sell what they receive on the market. That is why there are worries that the end of this month could be bad news for Bitcoin's price. But in July 2024, the month Mt. Gox began repaying Bitcoin, Bitcoin still ended the month up 3.1%.
What matters is not only the number of coins but the money available to absorb them. And money flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs fell sharply over the four trading days from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1 compared with the prior week.
- Why are Mt. Gox's coins still in the wallet?
Mt. Gox (once the world's largest Japanese Bitcoin exchange) had about 850,000 Bitcoin stolen in a 2014 hack. Nobuaki Kobayashi, the rehabilitation trustee (a lawyer appointed by a court to manage a failed company's assets and distribute them to creditors), began repaying debts in Bitcoin on July 5, 2024.
Of about 142,000 Bitcoin set aside for repayment, about 107,000 had reached creditors by October 2025. The repayment deadline has been pushed back three times by one year each, from Oct. 31, 2023. Last year's extension notice cited the large number of creditors who had not finished the receiving procedures or ran into problems in the payout process.
Put simply, the remaining coins have owners but have not yet been handed over.
- There are two paths on the 31st of this month
The first is another extension. The trustee announced a one-year delay on Sept. 21 in 2023, on Oct. 10 in 2024, and last year on Oct. 27, 2025, four days before the deadline. Last year's notice says court permission was obtained. As of Oct. 4, the trustee's notice list has no extension notice this year.
The second is a payout. Creditors receive Bitcoin through designated exchanges and can sell what they receive. But the deadline is the date by which the work must be finished, not a day when everything is paid at once. As of last year, processing times at each exchange ran up to 60 to 90 days, so payment dates could be spread out.
- July 2024: how did the price behave when $3.1 billion worth moved?
On July 5, 2024, when repayments began, Bitcoin fell as low as $53,600, its lowest since the end of February that year. Bitcoin moves by the German government also weighed on the market at the time.
After that, Bitcoin closed at $64,619 on July 31, 3.1% above its July 1 open of $62,673. On July 30, when 47,229 Mt. Gox Bitcoin (then worth $3.1 billion) were moved to three wallets, the price showed no big change.
Put simply, it fell sharply on July 5, the first day of repayments, but the month ended higher.
- How much of the received coins went to exchanges?
Of the roughly 107,000 Bitcoin distributed by October 2025, about 92,000 were tracked: about 59,000 went to exchanges, and about 33,000 went through BitGo, a company that provides coin custody services. That means 64.1% of the tracked coins went to exchanges. Sending coins to an exchange is not the same as selling; they can also go to custody or over-the-counter trades (direct deals outside an exchange).
At the same rate, about 22,000 of the 34,387.51 coins now remaining, about $1.85 billion, would go to exchanges. This is a BITPRESS calculation assuming all remaining coins are distributed and the past average rate repeats; the actual rate could be higher or lower.
Put simply, at the same rate as before, the portion headed to exchanges is smaller than the full $2.88 billion.
- The problem is less the supply than the money to absorb it
Compared with actual inflows, the assumed $1.85 billion is smaller than one week's net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs (US products that buy and hold actual Bitcoin and let investors trade shares in it like stocks). In the week before Sept. 28, these ETFs took in a net $2.39 billion (money coming in minus money going out).
But net inflows over the four trading days from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1 fell to $51.25 million. On Sept. 30 alone, $149 million flowed out. Stablecoins (coins designed to stay worth $1 each), the waiting cash used to buy coins, stand at about $270 billion, up $4 billion since September but $14 billion below May.
Put simply, even the same amount of coins can weigh differently on the price in a week with a lot of money coming in than in a week with little.
- BITPRESS Insight
The key number in the Mt. Gox story is not only $2.88 billion. If the deadline is extended, the coins stay locked in the wallet for another year. If they are distributed and the past rate repeats, about $1.85 billion worth could arrive at exchanges on different dates.
That assumed figure is smaller than one week of strong ETF inflows, but it is more than 30 times the net inflow over the four trading days from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1. So whether the coins released at the end of this month turn out to be bad news depends as much on the money coming in that week as on the number of coins.
What matters more than how many Mt. Gox coins there are is whether the money flowing into ETFs in the week they come out is larger than that supply.
Sources
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20251027_1cc36334-e8b2-4fe4-8135-97d9a149e4f7_announcement_en.pdf
https://www.mtgox.com/
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20240705_01_announcement_en.pdf
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-enters-october-4-problems-151855980.html
https://cryptoslate.com/mt-gox-repayments-due-oct-31-will-a-supply-wave-hit-btc/
https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:32a4d2901094b:0-another-year-another-delay-mt-gox-keeps-4-billion-in-bitcoin-off-the-market/
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/07/05/first-mover-americas-bitcoin-slumps-below-54k-as-mt-gox-flags-repayments
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/bitcoin-price-falls-as-mt-gox-starts-repayments
https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin-price-chart-by-month-2024
https://kbthink.com/investment/fx/daily/261002.html
Glossary
Rehabilitation trustee — A person appointed by a court to manage a failed company's remaining assets and distribute them to creditors; at Mt. Gox, the lawyer Nobuaki Kobayashi holds this role.
Creditor — A person entitled to get back money or property they lent or deposited; at Mt. Gox, these are former users who left Bitcoin on the exchange.
Spot Bitcoin ETF — A fund that buys and holds actual Bitcoin and lets investors trade shares of it on a stock exchange.
Net inflow — The money that came into a fund over a period minus the money that left; a positive number means more new money came in.
Stablecoin — A coin designed to stay at the value of a currency such as $1 each, often used as waiting cash before buying coins.
Mt. Gox — A Japanese Bitcoin exchange that collapsed after a 2014 hack and is now repaying former users with the coins that remain.
ETF inflow — Money put into a Bitcoin ETF to buy shares. The fund uses it to buy Bitcoin, so inflows are a gauge of buying demand.
BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.
