Applications for land transaction permits, which Seoul buyers must file with their district office before buying a home, fell 65.1% from 10,165 in April to 3,547 four months later in August. September came to only 3,853 through the 28th, 62% below April. Yet Seoul apartment prices rose another 0.13% in the third week of September (as of Sept. 21), an 85th straight weekly gain, according to the Korea Real Estate Board.
The common reading is that "buyers have disappeared, so prices will soon fall, too." News that banks' home mortgage rates rose to 4.66% a year in August, the highest since November 2022, adds weight to that view. But broken down by neighborhood, the way applications fell and the places where prices are holding up look different.
- The 62% is a drop in pre-contract 'permit applications'
All of Seoul has been a land transaction permit zone (an area where buyers must get district office approval before buying a home) since October last year. Seoul Economic Daily treats the number of these applications as a leading indicator that moves ahead of actual deal volume. According to the Saeol online civil-petition portal, applications came to 10,165 in April and 3,547 in August, and September, which is not over yet, stood at 3,853 through the 28th.
Actual reported contracts fell, too. Seoul apartment deals (excluding those by public institutions) topped 8,000 in each of April and May but came to 3,466 in August, according to the real transaction price system of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. Put simply, deals fell to less than half of their spring level.
- April, the starting point, was no ordinary month
Citing Seoul city data, Seoul Shinmun reported that permit applications peaked in April, when many homes were listed ahead of May 9, the date a suspension of heavier capital gains taxes on owners of multiple homes was set to end. The city's count uses a different basis, so its numbers differ, but it also shows April as the peak.
As for why applications fell after that, Seoul Economic Daily said buyers turned to wait-and-see as loan curbs, rate increases and tax changes combined with this year's sharp price gains. Banks' new mortgage rate rose from 4.32% a year in May to 4.66% in August, according to the Bank of Korea. On a KRW 300 million loan over 30 years with equal principal-and-interest payments (the same amount every month), the monthly payment rises from about KRW 1,488,000 to KRW 1,549,000, roughly KRW 60,000 more (BITPRESS calculation).
- Gangnam fell, outer districts rose
Seoul's average rose 0.13% in the third week of September, but the picture underneath was split. Gangnam-gu (Seoul's wealthiest district, south of the Han River) fell 0.42% and Seocho-gu 0.37%, their biggest drops in about 193 and 192 weeks, respectively. In the same week, Nowon-gu (a district on Seoul's northeastern edge) rose 0.37% and Dongdaemun-gu 0.39%.
Permit applications show a similar pattern. In September, Nowon-gu had the most applications at 479, followed by Gangseo-gu at 251 and Eunpyeong-gu at 244. Applications in the Gangnam 3 districts (Gangnam-Seocho-Songpa, Seoul's priciest districts) fell 70.1% from April, more than Seoul as a whole (62%). Still, the outer districts were also down from April.
In Gangnam, sharply discounted listings have changed hands. According to local brokers, an apartment in Gaepo-dong with 84㎡ of exclusive floor space was listed at KRW 4 billion, cut to KRW 3.47 billion and sold in early September. A nearby broker said that even when a bargain listing appears, buyers can borrow only KRW 200 million, so few are quick to decide.
- Analysts point to a jeonse shortage propping up outer-district prices
Seoul Shinmun reported that in Gangnam, buyers expecting further declines are putting off deals, while in Gangbuk (the area north of the Han River) and the outer districts, deals have stalled because listings are scarce and prices have already risen a lot. Kim In-man, head of the Kim In-man Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said, "In some areas, loan and tax rules make deals hard, so listings are piling up, but most other areas are still on an upward trend, including 'catch-up' gains, so it is hard to see home prices as falling overall."
Nam Hyuk-woo, a real estate researcher at Woori Bank, cited a shortage of jeonse (Korea's lump-sum deposit lease) listings as the reason outer districts are rising. Tenants in outer districts rely more on jeonse loans, he explained, and as loan limits and guarantee rules were tightened, and sellers moved tenants out to sell homes empty so buyers could get loans, jeonse listings shrank further. "Tenants who could not renew their jeonse contracts are buying homes at record-high prices or moving to nearby areas in search of jeonse and monthly-rent listings," he said. Seoul's overall jeonse prices have risen 8.00% this year through the third week of September, close to the 8.09% rise in sale prices.
- In 2021-2022, deals fell first and prices fell later
Seoul apartment deal reports totaled 41,713 in 2021 (a provisional count as of Jan. 1, 2022; late reports may be added), the fewest in nine years. Even so, Seoul apartment prices rose 7.76% from January to November that year, the biggest gain since 2006.
Prices fell hard only in 2022, after deals sank to a record low of 639 in July as interest rates surged. In the first week of September that year (as of Sept. 5), Seoul apartment prices fell 0.15%, the largest drop in nine years and one month. Seoul Shinmun noted at the time that because only discounted quick sales were going through, the price data mostly reflected lower-priced deals.
What is different this time is that, for now, falling prices are clear only in the Gangnam 3 districts (based on price-decline data). There are no statistics yet on how large a share of deals are discounted quick sales. In the first week of September 2022, Nowon-gu and Dobong-gu each fell 0.30%, the steepest declines in Seoul, but in the third week of September this year, Nowon-gu rose 0.37%.
- BITPRESS Insight
Fewer deals alone have not pulled Seoul's average home price down. That was true in 2021, and it is true now. The average fell sharply in 2022, when deals sank to rock bottom as rates surged and mostly discounted quick sales were going through.
Right now, falling prices are clear only in the Gangnam 3 districts. Analysts say that in the Gangnam 3, where tax and loan burdens are heavy, buyers wait even when discounted listings appear, while in outer districts short on jeonse listings, some tenants are switching to buying, which props up prices. That is why a single 'Seoul home price' figure can't tell you which way your own neighborhood is heading.
There are three tests. Are the homes that sold mostly discounted quick sales? Are jeonse listings scarce in that neighborhood? Are loan rates rising? On the first, there are cases in Gangnam but no statistics yet; on the second, experts say it applies to outer districts such as Nowon; the third is common across the country right now. If the third is the same for everyone, the first two questions are what set neighborhoods apart.
Sources
https://www.sedaily.com/article/20096233
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202609241401354062
https://www.wowtv.co.kr/NewsCenter/News/Read?articleId=A202609300089
https://m.sedaily.com/article/20096593
https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/estate/2026/09/15/20260915002001
https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/estate/2026/09/23/20260923500069
https://edaily.co.kr/News/Read?mediaCodeNo=257&newsId=02086086645583400
https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/estate/2022/01/03/20220103020006
https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/estate/2022/09/08/20220908500078
Glossary
Land transaction permit zone — An area where you must get district office approval before buying a home or land; all of Seoul was designated last October, so buying an apartment starts with an application.
Transaction report — A rule that buyers report an apartment's sale price within 30 days of signing the contract; counts for recent months can rise as late reports are added.
Quick sale — A listing priced below nearby market prices so it sells fast.
Catch-up (kimatchugi) — When cheaper neighborhoods' prices rise later to catch up with pricier areas that rose first.
Equal principal-and-interest repayment — Paying back a loan with the same combined amount of principal and interest every month.
Gangnam 3 districts — Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa, Seoul's priciest districts, where high-end apartments are concentrated.
Jeonse — Korea's lump-sum deposit lease. Instead of paying monthly rent, the tenant gives the landlord a large deposit and gets it all back when the contract ends.
Gangnam and Nowon — Two of Seoul's 25 districts: Gangnam is the wealthiest, south of the Han River, while Nowon sits on the city's northeastern edge.
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