Micron, the US memory chipmaker (third in HBM market share after Samsung Electronics and SK hynix), reported revenue of $54.23 billion for its June-August quarter on Sept. 30 (US time). That is a record, nearly five times the level a year earlier. So the first reading is that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will also beat expectations.
But the real point lies elsewhere. Micron reports its results in dollars, while the two Korean companies convert the dollars they earn into Korean won for their books. A falling dollar-won exchange rate means you get fewer won for each dollar you exchange. On Sept. 29, DS Investment & Securities estimated the two companies' combined third-quarter operating profit at about KRW 15 trillion below the market's average forecast. The drop in the exchange rate was named as the biggest reason.
- Samsung's profit isn't shrinking; it's just growing less than expected
The third-quarter operating profit consensus (the average of brokerage forecasts) compiled on Sept. 21 by FnGuide (a financial data provider that collects and averages brokerage forecasts) is KRW 111.3772 trillion for Samsung Electronics and KRW 78.1291 trillion for SK hynix. Samsung's consensus is up 5% from KRW 105.903 trillion three months earlier.
DS Investment & Securities estimates KRW 104 trillion for Samsung Electronics and KRW 70.1 trillion for SK hynix. That is about KRW 7.4 trillion and KRW 8 trillion below consensus, respectively, or about KRW 15.4 trillion combined (BITPRESS calculation). Even so, Samsung's KRW 104 trillion is an estimate that, if it comes true, would be an all-time high, about KRW 14.5 trillion more than its second-quarter result of KRW 89.4924 trillion. Put simply, for Samsung, being 'cut' does not mean its profit falls. It means its profit does not rise as much as the market expected.
- Selling the same memory brings in fewer won
Even if a company sells the same product at the same dollar price, its sales converted into won shrink when the exchange rate falls. Income items such as sales are usually converted at the rate on the transaction date or at the quarter's average rate. According to Bank of Korea data, the average rate was KRW 1,501.93 per dollar in the second quarter and KRW 1,430.37 from July 1 to Sept. 17, about 4.8% lower.
Based on the average through Sept. 17, that works out to about KRW 72 less for every dollar (BITPRESS calculation). Sell $100 million of memory, and sales in won come in about KRW 7.2 billion lower. On top of that, when products made from raw materials bought while the rate was high are sold after the rate falls, a time lag appears: costs stay the same while only sales shrink.
Both companies are highly exposed to this. Of Samsung Electronics' KRW 258.6 trillion in separate (excluding subsidiaries) sales in the first half of this year, KRW 245.7 trillion came from exports. JP Morgan (a US investment bank) said in an analysis that more than 90% of SK hynix's sales are dollar-based.
- 11% and 4.8% are measured differently
The figure cited as the basis for DS Investment & Securities' estimates is 'a roughly 11% drop in the dollar-won rate from the end of the second quarter' (as reported). But income items such as sales mostly use the quarter's average rate, and on an average basis the drop is smaller. The average through Sept. 17 is only about 4.8% below the second-quarter average.
On Sept. 30, the exchange rate was KRW 1,352.8 per dollar at the daytime trading close (that day's closing value on the Seoul foreign exchange market), lower even than the July 1-Sept. 17 average (KRW 1,430.37). By BITPRESS's calculation, if this level holds, the fourth-quarter average rate will be lower than the third quarter's. That means the currency burden may not end with the third quarter.
- Not all of the KRW 15 trillion is due to the exchange rate
DS Investment & Securities' estimates are seen as reflecting factors other than the exchange rate as well: for Samsung, higher costs in its mobile and home appliance businesses; for SK hynix, changes in its shipment mix and in the timing of revenue recognition as it moves to next-generation HBM (high-performance memory placed next to AI chips).
Other brokerages point the same way. Kiwoom Securities cut its Samsung third-quarter operating profit forecast by 12%, from KRW 122 trillion to KRW 107 trillion, citing the exchange rate's sharp fall and commodity DRAM price gains falling short of expectations. Eugene Investment & Securities lowered its exchange-rate assumption from KRW 1,440 to KRW 1,400 per dollar and, reflecting wider mobile losses and provisions for bonuses, put forward KRW 103.6 trillion. Put simply, the exchange rate is the biggest piece, but it does not explain the full KRW 15 trillion.
- A record profit fell short of expectations in Q4 2017, too
It has happened before. On Jan. 9, 2018, Samsung Electronics announced fourth-quarter 2017 operating profit of KRW 15.1 trillion. It was a quarterly record but fell short of the KRW 15.8675 trillion consensus. In its final results on Jan. 31, the company said the stronger won had a negative impact of about KRW 660 billion compared with the previous quarter, mainly in its components business. At the time, a Yuanta Securities analyst said the result missed consensus because of unfavorable currency effects and special bonuses, but added, "Rather than an earnings shock, it came in at a level in line with recently lowered estimates."
What is different this time is the size. Going by DS Investment & Securities' estimates alone, the two companies' combined third-quarter operating profit is KRW 174.1 trillion, so a currency shock of the same percentage is far larger in money terms. Nomura estimated that a 10% rise in the won's value could cut Korean memory makers' operating profit by about 12%. Memory prices, on the other hand, work to offset the exchange rate. In its pre-quarter outlook, TrendForce (a Taiwanese market research firm) expected third-quarter contract prices for commodity and server DRAM to rise 13-18% from the previous quarter. Kiwoom Securities, however, judged that commodity DRAM price gains would fall short of expectations.
- BITPRESS Insight
The chip boom and the strong won do not move separately. Even if higher memory prices mean more dollars earned, a cheaper dollar means profit in won grows that much less. The KRW 15 trillion is not money that disappears from profits but the slice that can fall away between market expectations and the exchange rate.
So on the day Samsung Electronics or SK hynix results miss consensus, split the judgment into three questions. Did profit grow from the previous quarter? How far did that quarter's average exchange rate fall? Was the shortfall due to the exchange rate, or to costs and shipment timing? If profit grew and the rate fell sharply, you can suspect the currency before the chip cycle. But costs and shipment timing move too, so don't pin it on the exchange rate alone.
Sources
https://www.ajunews.com/view/20260929151957904
https://www.sedaily.com/article/20096871
https://www.newspim.com/news/view/20260930001065
https://www.ekoreanews.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=88335
https://www.mt.co.kr/industry/2026/09/18/2026091814000371619
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202609171839036988
https://www.viva100.com/article/20260917500782
https://www.newswire.co.kr/newsRead.php?no=863812
https://edaily.co.kr/News/Read?mediaCodeNo=257&newsId=01781046619076080
Glossary
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — A Korean nickname for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix together.
Consensus — The average of earnings forecasts from many brokerages, the number the market expects.
Stronger won — A rise in the won's value, which lowers the dollar-won exchange rate, so each dollar exchanged brings in fewer won.
Average exchange rate — The exchange rate averaged over a quarter, mainly used to convert income items such as sales into won.
Exchange-rate assumption — The won-per-dollar rate a brokerage sets in advance when estimating earnings.
Dollar-won exchange rate — How many Korean won one US dollar buys. Korea quotes it as won per dollar, so when the rate falls (say from 1,500 to 1,430), the won is stronger and every dollar a Korean exporter earns turns into fewer won.
HBM — High-performance memory made by stacking DRAM chips in layers so data moves quickly; it sits next to AI chips, and demand for it has driven the chip boom.
BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.
