Foreign investors sold KRW 12 trillion of KOSPI stocks in September (as reported on Sept. 27). Of that, SK hynix accounted for KRW 5.8 trillion and Samsung Electronics for KRW 2.7 trillion. About 70% of the selling came from those two chip stocks.
It's the kind of number that sets off talk of "foreigners leaving Korea." Yet over the same period, Samsung Electronics' expected third-quarter operating profit is about nine times what it was a year ago. Profits are set to jump, so why did foreigners sell, and what will bring them back?
- The selling was concentrated in two chip stocks
The heaviest selling came on Sept. 9-16. Over those six trading days, foreigners net sold KRW 11.9465 trillion on the KOSPI. SK hynix (KRW 6.2945 trillion) and Samsung Electronics (KRW 4.8775 trillion) made up 93.5% of it. The period overlaps with Sept. 16, when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75-4%.
Over the same period, foreigners bought refiners, airlines and banks such as SK Innovation (KRW 153.7 billion), Korean Air (KRW 123.8 billion) and Woori Financial Group (KRW 110.5 billion). They weren't dumping Korean stocks as a whole; they were trimming chip stocks that had risen sharply.
Nor did the chip selling start suddenly in September. On a monthly basis, foreigners have been net sellers of the two stocks for five straight months since May. They sold KRW 10.162 trillion on the KOSPI in August too, yet the index rose 8.99% that month, from 6,257.45 to 6,820.02. Foreign selling doesn't automatically mean the index falls.
- Who bought while foreigners sold?
Individuals also sold on Sept. 1-11: KRW 5.212 trillion of Samsung Electronics and KRW 7.818 trillion of SK hynix, KRW 13.03 trillion in total. After four straight months of buying from May to August, individuals turned sellers for the first time in five months.
The shares were taken up by "other corporations" (company and institution accounts). Share buybacks (a company buying its own stock) are counted here, and over the same period these accounts net bought KRW 4.658 trillion of Samsung Electronics and KRW 9.89 trillion of SK hynix. SK hynix rose 8.24% over the period while Samsung Electronics slipped 0.19%, which is read as the effect of corporate buying being concentrated in SK hynix.
- What drew foreigners back in August was expectation
Foreigners haven't only been selling chips. From Aug. 11 to 18, they were net buyers on the KOSPI for five straight trading days, the first such streak in about seven months since January. Of the KRW 8.1561 trillion total, 87% went to SK hynix (KRW 3.6489 trillion) and Samsung Electronics (KRW 3.4831 trillion). Over those five trading days, SK hynix rose 17.04% and Samsung Electronics 16.74%.
Two reasons were cited. Bigger AI investment by global tech companies revived expectations for memory prices and demand, and July's plunge had made the shares cheaper. The trigger was not an earnings report but the expectation that memory chips would sell more.
Sept. 18 looked similar. As U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices fell, foreigners turned net buyers for the first time in eight trading days, buying KRW 426.2 billion, and SK hynix rose 6% that day.
- Samsung's Q3 profit forecast is 9x last year's
Samsung Electronics will release preliminary third-quarter results (estimated results announced before the books are closed) in early October. The consensus (the average of brokerages' forecasts) for operating profit is KRW 111.74 trillion. That is about nine times the KRW 12.17 trillion of a year earlier and more than the second quarter's preliminary KRW 89.4 trillion.
The catch is that this number is already known to the market. When everyone knows the forecast is 9x, a 9x result isn't news. What moves foreigners is the gap between the forecast and the actual number.
- The first report card comes from Micron
Before Samsung, U.S. memory maker Micron reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30 (local time). Revenue is forecast at $50 billion and earnings per share at $31.2-31.5. Because it sells the same memory chips, it will show whether memory demand is still growing before Samsung does.
"Earnings from large chip stocks and macro indicators will set the market's direction after the holiday," said Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities. Market anxiety has also eased. The KOSPI volatility index (the market's expectation of how much stocks will swing) has fallen from a July peak of 89.3 to 43.6.
- BITPRESS Insight
September's KRW 12 trillion of selling looks less like "leaving Korea" and more like trimming chip stocks that had run up. Over the same period foreigners bought refiners, airlines and banks, and company buybacks absorbed the chip shares.
What August and Sept. 18, the days foreigners came back, had in common was not earnings figures but memory-demand expectations and interest rates. So what matters in Samsung's early-October release is not the size of the 9x, but whether it beats the KRW 111.74 trillion forecast, and what Micron shows about memory demand first.
The rule of thumb fits in one line: good earnings everyone knows about are already in the price, and foreign money follows the gap between expectation and reality.
Sources
https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026092331726
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202609161824361511
https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2624770
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202608181711598478
https://www.news1.kr/finance/general-stock/6295558
https://news.samsungsemiconductor.com/kr/%EC%82%BC%EC%84%B1%EC%A0%84%EC%9E%90-2026%EB%85%84-2%EB%B6%84%EA%B8%B0-%EC%9E%A0%EC%A0%95%EC%8B%A4%EC%A0%81-%EB%B0%9C%ED%91%9C/
https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2620033
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
Glossary
Net selling — The amount by which sales exceed purchases over a period; net buying is the opposite.
Other corporations — Ordinary company accounts that are not individuals, foreigners or institutions (brokerages, pension funds); a company buying its own shares shows up here.
Consensus — The average of analysts' earnings forecasts, the number the market already expects.
Preliminary results — Estimated revenue and profit a company announces before its books are formally closed.
KOSPI volatility index — A measure, calculated from KOSPI 200 option prices, of how much the market expects stocks to swing.
KOSPI — Korea's main stock index of large listed companies, its version of the S&P 500.
BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.
