Hyundai Motor's stock fell 53.38%, from an intraday KRW 783,000 on June 1, 2026, to a close of KRW 365,000 on Sept. 18. Over the same period, its market value shrank 51.33%, from KRW 153.5683 trillion to KRW 74.7366 trillion. About KRW 79 trillion vanished in just over three months. The stock's drop is measured from an intraday high, so it differs slightly from the fall in market value.
The common explanation is earnings. A stronger won (Korea's currency), US tariffs and strikes ate into profits. That isn't wrong.
But take apart one brokerage's math and earnings don't explain it all. Over the same four months, the price target was cut more than twice as much as the profit forecast. A price target is not the stock price, but it shows how much value had been placed on robot hopes.
- Robots were seen as a big reason for the first-half surge
In January 2026, Boston Dynamics (the Hyundai Motor Group's US robotics company) unveiled its humanoid robot Atlas at CES, the world's biggest tech and electronics show. Analysts then said Hyundai's stock soared as the market began to value it as a robot company rather than a carmaker. Its June 1 peak was up 164% for the year.
Brokerages fed the hopes, too. According to reports, before robot hopes were priced in, the price targets of 12 major brokerages in the fourth quarter of 2025 were mostly in the KRW 300,000s to 400,000s. In the second quarter of 2026, KB Securities raised its target as high as KRW 1.2 million, and two firms set KRW 1 million.
Profits from the core business moved the other way. Hyundai Motor's operating profit for the first half of 2026 was KRW 5.3656 trillion, down 25.8% from a year earlier. US auto tariffs hit both Hyundai and its sister company Kia hard. Earnings weren't the only thing blamed as the stock fell, either. Money rushing into chip stocks was also cited.
- A stock is priced as 'profit × multiple'
Brokerages often set a price target by multiplying a company's expected net profit by a multiple (the P/E, or how many times a year's net profit the stock price is). Put a 10x multiple on KRW 1 trillion of net profit and the fair market value is KRW 10 trillion; put 20x on it and it's KRW 20 trillion. As this example shows, even if profit stays the same, moving the multiple from 10x to 20x doubles the price target.
Think of it like buying fruit. The price is weight (profit) times the price per kilogram (the multiple). Unlike fruit, though, a stock's price per kilogram can swing widely within months on expectations for the future.
Samsung Securities raised the target multiple it applies to Hyundai Motor from about 8x to 18x in January 2026, and to 20.5x in May. The argument was that Hyundai should be seen as a robotics and physical AI (artificial intelligence that runs machines moving in the real world) company. Its price target at the time was KRW 900,000.
- Breaking down one brokerage's numbers
Samsung Securities cut its forecast for Hyundai Motor's 2026 net profit by about 18%, from KRW 11.615 trillion in May to KRW 9.508 trillion in September. The cut reflected weak sales, tougher competition from Chinese EV makers, a stronger won and production losses from strikes. Some said a cut of nearly 20% in four months was somewhat unusual.
Over the same period, the price target fell about 44%, from KRW 900,000 to KRW 500,000. That's more than twice the cut to the profit forecast. Put simply, the price target came down much more steeply than profits.
A lower multiple and a subsidiary discount both played a part. As the stock fell, Samsung Securities cut the multiple to 18x in July and 17x in late August. In its August report, it lowered the price target to KRW 600,000, saying, "Hyundai Motor's articles of incorporation do not include a robotics business, and the robot business is set to be run as a separate subsidiary." In other words, it saw the robot setup as a reason for a discount.
Still, multiplying the profit cut by the multiple cut doesn't produce the full 44%. Where the rest of the gap came from can't be explained with the numbers in the reports alone.
NH Investment & Securities also raised its multiple from 13.6x in early January to 19.6x in May, then cut it to 14.5x. Explaining its lower price target, it said, "The robotics business is proceeding as planned, but with no updates, expectations are likely to fade." The reason wasn't that the robot business had stalled, but that there was no news.
- The earnings headwinds are real, too
The won-dollar exchange rate, which climbed to nearly KRW 1,560 per dollar at one point in June, closed at KRW 1,352.8 on Sept. 30. When the won strengthens, dollar sales are worth fewer won once converted. Samsung Securities said it "expects earnings to slow in the third quarter due to strikes and a stronger won."
Sales fell, too. Hyundai Motor sold 307,998 vehicles worldwide in September 2026, 16.0% fewer than a year earlier. The company said the Chuseok holiday (Korea's autumn harvest festival) cut the number of business days and that some buyers were waiting for new models. As of July 21, 2026, the union had gone on strike four times this year.
The 18% cut to the profit forecast mentioned earlier reflects these headwinds. Earnings clearly account for part of the price target's fall, and the multiple and the discount were added on top.
- What happened the last time a theme cooled?
Something similar happened in 2023. POSCO Holdings (the holding company of the POSCO steel group) was pitched as a winner from rechargeable batteries, and its stock rose from the KRW 200,000s in early January 2023 to an intraday KRW 764,000 on July 26. Its operating profit for the first three quarters of that year fell nearly 40%. The timing differs: the stock peaked in July, while the profit figure runs through the third quarter.
The stock then slid to KRW 259,000 by Jan. 3, 2025, about a third of its peak. Samsung Securities cut its price target eight times, from KRW 800,000 in June 2023 to KRW 380,000. Meanwhile, both the steel and battery markets weakened, and as hopes and market conditions fell together, the stock returned close to where it started.
There are differences, too. Even with lower profits, Hyundai Motor earned more than KRW 5 trillion in operating profit in the first half alone.
- BITPRESS Insight
Hyundai Motor's stock didn't halve because its car profits halved. In Samsung Securities' math, the profit forecast fell about 18%, while the price target fell about 44%. That gap includes both a lower multiple, once given for hopes that Hyundai was a 'robot company,' and a subsidiary discount.
This gap matters for investors who bought near the peak. Waiting only for earnings to recover is half the math. A price target includes the multiple as well as profit, and a brokerage has even cut its price target citing "no updates."
The test comes down to one line. If a price target falls far more than the profit forecast, you can read it as a sign that expectations, not just earnings, have fallen too.
Sources
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202609201835466731
https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10879487
https://news.mtn.co.kr/news-detail/2026092209082560182
https://www.seoul.co.kr/news/economy/securities/2026/07/21/20260721500080
https://www.hyundaimotorgroup.com/ko/news/hyundai-motor-company-september-2026-sales
https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/09/30/2026093015352291632
https://economychosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2026/06/29/2026062900021.html
https://m.ekn.kr/view.php?key=20250106021481695
https://www.topdaily.kr/articles/95913
Glossary
Market cap — The stock price times the number of shares outstanding: the price the market puts on the whole company.
P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) — How many times a year's net profit the stock price is; the higher it is, the more future hope is baked in.
Price target — The stock price a brokerage says a company is worth, found by multiplying expected profit by a multiple.
Physical AI — Artificial intelligence built into machines that move in the real world, such as robots and self-driving cars.
Stronger won — When the won-dollar exchange rate falls, so it takes fewer won to buy $1; exporters' sales are then worth fewer won.
Won — South Korea's currency. Exchange rates are quoted as how many won one US dollar buys, so a lower number means a stronger won.
BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.
