According to the Korea Real Estate Board, apartment prices in Seoul's Gangnam district fell 0.95% so far this year through the second week of October. Over the same period, Jungnang rose 10.77% and Gangbuk rose 10.81%. Fourteen of Seoul's 25 districts posted double-digit gains.
It is easy to assume that if Gangnam, long seen as the leader of Seoul's housing market, is falling, cheaper neighborhoods will cool off too.
But the key lies elsewhere. What is pressing Gangnam down now is taxes, and what is pushing the outskirts up is loan limits and a shortage of jeonse listings. Two different levers move the two markets, so there is no reason for the outskirts to fall just because Gangnam does.
- Gangnam is held down by owners selling before taxes rise
The tax plan the government released on Aug. 3 included a higher comprehensive real estate tax on expensive homes (a yearly tax on owners of pricey homes) and a smaller long-term holding deduction (a discount on capital gains tax for people who have owned a home for many years). Analysts say owners rushed to sell to avoid the heavier tax bill. Gangnam apartment prices fell for 10 straight weeks starting with the survey of Aug. 10, including a 0.35% drop in the second week of October alone.
Listings are piling up while buyers pull back. From Aug. 3 to Oct. 15, apartment listings in Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa rose 27.9%, from 22,182 to 28,373, yet sales fell from 609 in July to 334 in September. A 76.79-square-meter unit at Eunma Apartments in Daechi-dong sold for KRW 3.7 billion to KRW 3.8 billion last November, but changed hands for KRW 3.25 billion to KRW 3.45 billion this August.
Still, the decline is concentrated in the priciest homes. Nam Hyuk-woo of the Woori Bank Real Estate Research Center said the adjustment in Gangnam is limited to areas dense with apartments worth more than KRW 4 billion.
- Loan limits that vary by home price pushed up the outskirts
The Oct. 15 measures, announced on Oct. 15, 2025, placed all of Seoul under regulated-area and land transaction permit zone rules, and split loan limits into steps by home price. After the June 27 measures capped loans in the Seoul metropolitan area at KRW 600 million, homes priced above KRW 1.5 billion and up to KRW 2.5 billion were cut to KRW 400 million, and homes above KRW 2.5 billion to KRW 200 million.
Assuming you borrow the maximum, a KRW 1.5 billion apartment takes KRW 900 million of your own cash, while a KRW 1.6 billion one takes KRW 1.2 billion. The price differs by KRW 100 million, but the cash you need differs by KRW 300 million. It is like closing one toll booth: cars pile onto the side road. Unlike a road, though, homes get more expensive where the crowd goes.
Indeed, comparing about 10 months before and after the measures, Seoul apartment sales at KRW 900 million or less rose 13.6%, while sales above KRW 2.5 billion fell 17.1%. Yoon Su-min, a real estate specialist at NH Nonghyup Bank, said: "High-priced apartments swing with taxes, and mid-to-low-priced apartments with loans."
- As jeonse listings shrink, tenants buy homes in cheaper areas
In land transaction permit zones, a buyer must move in and live in the home, which is cited as one reason fewer homes come up for jeonse. As of Oct. 14, apartment jeonse listings in Gyeonggi Province were down 37.8% from a year earlier.
Some tenants who cannot find a jeonse buy a home in an area cheaper than where they lived. This is called "buying down." Suwon's Yeongtong district, third in price gains this year, also saw jeonse prices rise 11.32%, and its jeonse listings rose to 403 on Jan. 9 before falling 27.8% to 291 on Oct. 17.
Areas without a move-in requirement, those outside the regulated zones, are even stronger. Gunpo, in Gyeonggi Province, is up 9.26% this year, after falling 0.30% over the same period last year. Demand blocked by the rules did not disappear; it moved to places that were not blocked.
- Gangnam falling does not pull the outskirts down because the buyers differ
On homes above KRW 2.5 billion the loan is capped at KRW 200 million, so the pool of buyers narrows to people with a lot of cash. They are the first to move when the tax math changes. In the outskirts, many buyers plan to live in the home and stay within loan limits, so they respond to jeonse prices and loan limits.
Shin Bo-yeon, a professor at Sejong University, also said that buyers were blocked from expensive homes by loan and tax burdens, while real demand crowded into mid-to-low-priced homes. From last October through this September, Seoul apartments of 60 square meters or less rose 17.5%, while those over 135 square meters rose only 6.5%.
- Whether Gangnam's weakness lasts depends on a tax plan that is not final
This is not the first time taxes have pushed Gangnam down this year. The southeast Seoul actual-transaction price index (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa and Gangdong) fell 2.62% in March and 1.32% in April as listings poured out ahead of the May 9 capital gains tax surcharge on owners of multiple homes. It rose again from May.
What is different this time is that it is not yet set how much taxes will rise. The Seoul city government noted that the plan announced on Sept. 1 had softened the planned increase in the comprehensive real estate tax in part, and said possible tax adjustments in the National Assembly review should be considered as well. In preliminary September data, the southeast index was expected to fall 1.71%, a wider drop.
The outskirts are a different story. Professor Shin said that if new supply stays short for the next three years and jeonse and rent worries continue, strength in apartments priced at KRW 1 billion or less could persist.
- BITPRESS Insight
Gangnam falling and the outskirts rising do not contradict each other. People buying in Gangnam watch taxes; people buying in the outskirts watch loan limits and jeonse prices. The rules did not remove demand. They moved it to price ranges that loans can reach and to areas with no move-in requirement.
News that Gangnam fell means the tax math changed for people who own expensive homes. It does not mean fewer people are looking for homes under KRW 1.5 billion.
Whether your own area's prices rise depends less on whether Gangnam fell than on whether homes there fit under loan limits and whether jeonse listings are shrinking.
Sources
https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20261018000500003
https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261016133023681
https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261014151345784
https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261016140057835
https://www.mt.co.kr/estate/2026/10/16/2026101522092722947
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202610160602510194
https://www.fnnews.com/news/202610151817500360
https://news.bizwatch.co.kr/article/real_estate/2026/10/16/0035
Glossary
Land transaction permit zone — An area where buyers need local government approval to purchase a home and must then move in and live there for a set period.
Comprehensive real estate tax — A national tax charged every year, separate from regular property tax, on owners of homes with high official values.
Long-term holding deduction — A system that cuts capital gains tax according to how long you owned a home before selling it.
Buying down — Buying a home in a cheaper area, or a smaller home, than where you used to live.
Decoupling — When two prices that used to move together start moving in different directions.
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