{"id":969,"date":"2026-01-13T11:52:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T02:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=969"},"modified":"2026-01-13T15:55:47","modified_gmt":"2026-01-13T06:55:47","slug":"us-global-order-exit-energy-minerals-dollar-reset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/us-global-order-exit-energy-minerals-dollar-reset\/","title":{"rendered":"America's exit from the global order and its fixation on resources are redrawing the energy and dollar map"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. withdrawal from UN-related bodies and the Venezuela, Cuba and Greenland issues are better seen not as \u201cmere diplomatic events\u201d but as a strategy to cut America's external risks and costs and redistribute resource and security gains. If this strategy works to some degree, over the medium to long term it is likely to raise inflation pressure and geopolitical volatility while also creating \u2018relative\u2019 strength for U.S. assets and U.S.-driven risk assets (especially U.S. stocks and dollar-based crypto).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1--un\">1. What is the U.S. doing by leaving the UN and international organizations?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Trump administration announced over 2025\u20132026 that it would withdraw from or stop funding 66 international and UN-related organizations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They include the WHO, the UN Human Rights Council and many climate, environment and development bodies, and the logic is that the U.S. \u201cwill not spend money on organizations that work against American interests and infringe on its finances and sovereignty.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the same time, it is pursuing a renewed exit from the Paris climate agreement and cuts to UN climate, health and human rights programs, and has declared it will redirect resources to domestic infrastructure, military power, border control and industrial protection (tariffs and manufacturing reshoring).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2\">2. Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland: the \u201chegemony, resources, security\u201d triangle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The U.S. intervened in Venezuela's regime change by ousting Maduro in a military operation, then sent Cuba's government a stern warning that it has been \u201cpushed to its economic and political limits,\u201d signaling tougher sanctions and pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Venezuela, with its vast oil and resources and strategic location in the Western Hemisphere, and Cuba, a geopolitical lever for Caribbean security right off the U.S. mainland, are both key targets for managing American dominance in the Americas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>President Trump again showed his intent to \u2018bring Greenland into the U.S.\u2019 or tighten effective control over it, calling it \u201can essential security asset for checking Russia and China that Denmark cannot handle.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3\">3. What the strategy aims for: a macroeconomic view<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a macro perspective, the core goals come down to four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Redistributing fiscal spending and resources<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is an attempt to cut spending on international organization dues and global public goods (health, human rights, development aid, climate) and redirect that money to domestic infrastructure, the military and borders, and industrial protection (subsidies and tariff defense), spending that directly boosts \u201cdomestic growth and jobs.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the short term, this can prop up U.S. aggregate demand and lift revenue in defense, energy and infrastructure, supporting listed companies' earnings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tighter control over supply chains and energy<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Regime change in Venezuela and pressure on Cuba can be seen as a move to expand influence over energy and sea lanes in the Americas and rebuild a \u201cpro-American resource supply chain.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Greenland matters for its rare earths and minerals and as a base for Arctic shipping routes, missile defense and radar, so over the long term it could help stabilize U.S. supply chains for energy, defense, semiconductors, batteries and advanced manufacturing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Keeping the dollar and U.S. assets relatively attractive<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Weakening the UN and multilateral system raises global governance risk, but it also reconfirms that there is no clear \u201cplace for money to run in a crisis\u201d other than the U.S. and the dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In other words, the more unstable the world becomes, the stronger the paradox that U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks and dollar assets look attractive as a \u2018relative safe haven.\u2019<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Political message: sovereignty and rejecting global governance<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At home, it taps into resentment that \u201cthe UN in New York and international bodies in Geneva, not Washington, rule America,\u201d aiming to rally its political base.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Abroad, it signals that \u201cAmerica still makes the rules, and if you don't like it, try doing it without America,\u201d pushing to make bilateral and bloc-style negotiations (tariff and security deals) the default format instead of the multilateral system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"4\">4. How it connects to the current U.S. macro economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>From 2025 onward, the U.S. economy is expected to grow modestly, at around 2% and about 1.9% in 2026, with inflation of 2.8\u20133.1%, \u2018above target.\u2019<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>One of the main drivers of inflation is seen as \u201chigh tariffs and the cost of supply chain restructuring,\u201d and the Fed, having already cut its benchmark rate by 150bp in 2025, is expected to take a fairly cautious easing stance in 2026 with only limited further cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In short, high tariffs, industrial policy, bigger defense spending and pro-American supply chains help defend growth, but structurally they add to price and fiscal pressures, creating an environment where it is hard for the Fed to cut rates very aggressively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"5\">5. If the scenario succeeds: the impact on U.S. stocks and crypto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Assuming success, the premise is that \u201cthe U.S. reduces its reliance on international organizations while taking control of assets in the Americas, the Arctic, energy and security, and maintains moderate growth and manageable inflation without a recession.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact on U.S. stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sectors that benefit structurally\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Energy (oil, gas, pipelines, services): expectations of development in Venezuela and the Arctic, and relocation within the Americas supply chain, could boost medium- to long-term CAPEX.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Defense, space and cybersecurity: rising security risks around Cuba, Venezuela and the Arctic could push up defense budgets and export demand from allies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Infrastructure, industrials and reshoring manufacturers: if money flows to domestic infrastructure and manufacturing instead of international organization budgets, CAPEX and jobs hold up and earnings are likely to improve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What it looks like at the index level\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In an environment where growth is steady at around 2% but inflation stays sticky near 3%, a \u201creflation-style market\u201d could emerge in which value, dividend and real-asset-linked sectors show relative strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite rising geopolitical risk, if Europe and emerging markets take a bigger hit, a \u201crelative U.S. premium\u201d could hold, and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq may repeatedly see money flow back in after corrections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact on crypto<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Risk-on and risk-off happening at the same time\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Distrust of global governance and a weaker UN system reinforce the story that \u201crules made by states are hard to trust,\u201d which could strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin and on-chain assets as a \u2018political hedge.\u2019<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But because U.S. regulatory, tax and sanctions powers become relatively more important, the risk also grows that the U.S. could tightly squeeze dollar on\/off-ramps, exchanges and stablecoins whenever it chooses.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Possible scenarios by asset class\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin: its long-term story as \u201cdigital gold + a hedge against U.S. political risk\u201d may strengthen, but short-term volatility spikes (if not on the scale of LUNA or FTX) could become more frequent whenever U.S. regulatory events hit.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ethereum, L2s and infrastructure coins: if DeFi, tokenized securities and on-chain finance in the U.S. become more entangled with the mainstream system, they could benefit gradually once regulatory clarity arrives, but issues such as whether they count as securities and KYC requirements could deepen a selective split between winners and losers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stablecoins: the more global uncertainty grows, the greater the demand for \u201cdollar stablecoins,\u201d but they could also be used more actively as U.S. AML and sanctions tools, so specific issuers and chains will always carry the risk of a regulatory shock.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Related article links<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>White House fact sheet \u2013 President Donald J. Trump Withdraws the United States from International Organizations That Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/fact-sheets\/2026\/01\/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-withdraws-the-united-states-from-international-organizations-that-are-contrary-to-the-interests-of-the-united-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>White House presidential document \u2013 Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties That Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International broadcaster \u2013 Trump withdraws US from key climate treaty and dozens of international organisations<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cp80ln97py5o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International news outlet \u2013 Which are the 66 global organisations the US is leaving under Trump<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/1\/8\/which-are-the-66-global-organisations-the-us-is-leaving-under-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International news outlet \u2013 Trump to withdraw US from dozens of UN, international organisations<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/1\/8\/trump-to-withdraw-us-from-dozens-of-un-international-organisations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International radio outlet \u2013 Why is the U.S. pulling out of 31 U.N. groups?<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/goats-and-soda\/2026\/01\/08\/nx-s1-5671117\/trump-withdrawal-united-nations-health\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International broadcaster \u2013 US has &#8216;legal obligation&#8217; to pay dues, UN tells Trump<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/un-united-nations-trump-obligations-withdraw-international-organizations\/a-75442535\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global news agency \u2013 After Maduro, who&#8217;s next? Trump spurs speculation about his plans for Greenland, Cuba, Colombia<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global business outlet \u2013 Venezuela and the president&#8217;s new world order vision involving Cuba and Greenland<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2026-01-05\/trump-s-ouster-of-venezuela-s-maduro-puts-spotlight-on-cuba-greenland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>International news channel \u2013 Live coverage on developments in Venezuela and Greenland under the current US administration<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/world\/live-news\/venezuela-maduro-trump-president-military-01-06-26?post-id=cmk2fye6z0005356q8virw7h6&amp;t=1767722495677\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Asset manager report \u2013 Outlook 2026<a href=\"https:\/\/www.allianzgi.com\/en\/insights\/outlook-and-commentary\/outlook-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investment bank report \u2013 US Outlook 2026: Balancing Accelerating Growth and Sticky Inflation<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nomuraconnects.com\/focused-thinking-posts\/us-outlook-2026-balancing-accelerating-growth-and-sticky-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global brokerage report \u2013 2026 Economic Outlook: Moderate Growth<a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/insights\/articles\/global-economic-outlook-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Business magazine \u2013 What The U.S. Withdrawal From 66 International Bodies Means For American Business<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/kristenkaufman\/2026\/01\/12\/what-the-us-withdrawal-from-66-international-bodies-means-for-american-business\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global research \u2013 2026 Market Outlook<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/insights\/global-research\/outlook\/market-outlook\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<\/li>\n<\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc720\uc5d4 \uad00\ub828 \ub2e8\uccb4 \ud0c8\ud1f4\uc640 \ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c\u00b7\ucfe0\ubc14\u00b7\uadf8\ub9b0\ub780\ub4dc \uc774\uc288\ub294, \u201c\ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc678\uad50 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\u201d\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub300\uc678 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\u00b7\ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0 \uc790\uc6d0\u00b7\uc548\ubcf4 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc7ac\ubc30\ubd84\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub290 \uc815\ub3c4 \uc131\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc911\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc555\ub825\uacfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d\ubc1c \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0(\ud2b9\ud788 \ubbf8\uc7a5\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae30\ubc18 \ucf54\uc778)\uc5d0 \u2018\uc0c1\ub300\uc801\u2019 \uac15\uc138 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\u200b 1. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 UN\u00b7\uad6d\uc81c\uae30\uad6c \ud0c8\ud1f4, \ubb34\uc5c7\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub098 2. \ubca0\ub124\uc218\uc5d8\ub77c\u00b7\ucfe0\ubc14\u00b7\uadf8\ub9b0\ub780\ub4dc: \u201c\ud5e4\uac8c\ubaa8\ub2c8\u00b7\uc790\uc6d0\u00b7\uc548\ubcf4\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":975,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[323,152,326,329,327,331,321,265,324,134,330,328,332,325,322],"class_list":["post-969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-policy","tag-un","tag-152","tag-326","tag-329","tag-327","tag-331","tag-321","tag-265","tag-324","tag-134","tag-330","tag-328","tag-332","tag-325","tag-322"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - 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