{"id":8029,"date":"2026-11-05T09:05:16","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T00:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=8029"},"modified":"2026-11-05T09:05:16","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T00:05:16","slug":"midterm-rout-oil-drop-gridlock-stock-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/midterm-rout-oil-drop-gridlock-stock-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"The day Trump's Republicans were routed, US stocks posted their biggest gain since August"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Nov. 4 (local time), the U.S. S&P 500 index (an index that bundles the stock prices of 500 large U.S. companies) rose 1.58%, its best day since August. It came the day after midterm elections in which President Trump's Republican Party lost both the Senate and the House to the Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The common view is that \"when the ruling party suffers a crushing defeat, politics gets shaky and stocks fall.\" In fact, on the night of Nov. 3, before the results were in, Nasdaq 100 futures (contracts to buy and sell at a future price), an index centered on tech stocks, at one point fell as much as 2.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But markets did not cheer Democratic policy. They cheered two things: hopes that the US war with Iran, which had been pushing up oil prices, could end, sending oil below $100; and gridlock, in which a Republican president and a Democratic Congress block big policy changes. So the index rose, but sectors split into winners and losers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \n
  1. Why did oil move first after an election?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded at $94.11 a barrel on the afternoon of Nov. 4, down 9.2%. It was the first time below $100 in about a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The chain runs like this. A Democratic-led Congress could pressure President Trump to pull out of the Iran war, so the US would find it harder to escalate, worries about Middle East oil supply would ease, and oil would fall. Goldman Sachs expected Democrats to use budget deadlines to try to limit the Iran war and roll back some tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Why does cheaper oil lift stocks across the board?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Oil prices feed into inflation, and inflation feeds into interest rates. When prices rise, central banks raise interest rates to bring them under control. When oil falls, worries about inflation ease, and people expect less need to raise rates further. That day, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also fell from 4.95% the night before to 4.90%, slightly lowering the burden of borrowing for companies and households.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      It reaches consumers' wallets too. Spending less on gas leaves more money for other goods and services. That is why consumer discretionary stocks rose more than 4% during the day. But wages did not go up; spending went down, so if oil prices rise again, that breathing room will disappear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Why does a split between president and Congress calm markets?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        The second reason is gridlock. With a Republican president and a Democratic House and Senate, neither side can push a major law through alone. Capital Economics, a UK research firm, noted that Democrats lack the Senate seats to break a filibuster (a tactic in which the minority blocks a vote with long debate) and that a president can veto any bill that passes, so the short-term policy outlook barely changes. Wells Fargo Investment Institute also said it does not expect major policy change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos said a large Democratic majority in Congress would \"act as a brake on extreme policy outcomes and lower the risk premium.\" A risk premium is the extra price investors attach to uncertainty about what lies ahead. With less chance of the table being flipped, that extra price shrank, which supported stocks. Still, concerns moved differently by industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Which sectors lost money, and where did it go?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          During the day, oil and gas stocks fell nearly 5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (an index that bundles the stock prices of U.S. chip companies) fell 4%, Nvidia fell 3.2%, and Micron fell 7%. Investors bet that if Democrats slow the expansion of data centers, big cloud companies will spend less on chips and equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Amazon, by contrast, rose 7% intraday (per the Boston Globe; NBC reported a slightly smaller gain for the three big cloud companies as a group). RBC Global Asset Management's Mike Bell said there is \"a clear rotation out of semiconductors and energy into hyperscalers,\" meaning the big cloud companies. If data center building slows, firms that already have the capacity, such as Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet, have the edge over chipmakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Why did defense stocks and Musk's companies fall?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            In morning trading in Europe, the STOXX Aerospace & Defense index of European defense stocks fell about 0.7%, and Britain's BAE Systems fell about 4%. At the same time, the STOXX 600, an index of 600 large European companies, rose 0.9%. U.S. Congress has not yet allocated money for multibillion-dollar contracts that defense companies have signed, and the worry is that Democrats, who now control the House that holds that budget, could take another look at defense spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Elon Musk's companies, which he backed with hundreds of millions of dollars for Republican candidates, also sold off with the Republican defeat. Tesla fell 3.3% and SpaceX 3.8%. Trump Media, operator of Truth Social, fell 25% to a record low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. Do stocks always rise after elections like this?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              Historically, stocks have mostly risen after midterms. Edward Jones data show the S&P 500 gained an average 15.5% in the six months after each of the last 14 midterm elections since 1970.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              What is different this time is that the relief hangs on oil. Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi said, \"Nothing really changes until the war ends and oil prices come down.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n
                \n
              1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

                If you read this rally only as \"relief that the election is over,\" your next call will be wrong. What lifted the index was falling oil and policy gridlock, and in a single day sectors that benefited (consumer discretionary, big cloud) split from those that lost (energy, chips, defense, Musk's companies).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                The two reasons have different lifespans. Gridlock lasts as long as the makeup of Congress stays the same, but the oil drop is a bet on the war actually ending. If that bet fails and oil rises again, the money that rushed into consumer and big cloud stocks could be the first to wobble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Gridlock also carries over into budget fights such as defense spending. More important than how much the index rose after the election is whether the sectors you own depend more on oil or on policy gridlock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n\n\n\n

                Sources
                https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/business\/markets\/stock-futures-blue-tsunami-ai-boom-rcna607351<\/a>
                https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/stock-market-soar-democrats-take-control-of-congress\/<\/a>
                https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2026\/11\/04\/business\/midterms-stock-market-reaction\/<\/a>
                https:\/\/www.ttnews.com\/articles\/oil-prices-midterm-results<\/a>
                https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/stock-market-news\/european-defense-stocks-slip-as-democratic-midterm-win-raises-spending-worries-4998032<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n\n\n\n

                Glossary<\/strong>
                Gridlock<\/strong> \u2014 A state in which different parties hold the presidency and Congress, so neither side can pass a major law alone.
                Brent crude<\/strong> \u2014 Oil from the North Sea, the most widely used benchmark for global oil prices.
                Risk premium<\/strong> \u2014 The extra return investors demand for taking on risk when the future is uncertain.
                Filibuster<\/strong> \u2014 A tactic in the US Senate in which the minority blocks a vote with long debate; breaking it takes 60 of 100 votes.
                Hyperscalers<\/strong> \u2014 A company like Amazon, Microsoft or Alphabet that runs cloud services from huge data centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                The S&P 500 rose 1.58% on Nov. 4, the day after Republicans lost both the Senate and the House. But what the market cheered wasn\u2019t Democratic policy. It was Brent crude falling below $100 for the first time in about a month on hopes the Iran war could end, plus ‘gridlock.’ Lower oil prices eased pressure on inflation and interest rates, and with a Republican president facing a Democratic Congress, big policy changes looked blocked. Money flowed into consumer goods and big cloud companies, while energy, chip, defense and Musk-linked stocks fell.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[336],"tags":[1030,601,1671,265,756,1455,1717,553,1716,166],"class_list":["post-8029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-overseas-stocks","tag-sp500","tag-601","tag-1671","tag-265","tag-756","tag-1455","tag-1717","tag-553","tag-1716","tag-166"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9\uc774 \ucc38\ud328\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c \ub0a0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\uac00 8\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub978 \uc774\uc720 - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/midterm-rout-oil-drop-gridlock-stock-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9\uc774 \ucc38\ud328\ud55c \ub2e4\uc74c \ub0a0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc\uac00 8\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub978 \uc774\uc720 - 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