{"id":790,"date":"2025-12-26T19:35:26","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T10:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=790"},"modified":"2025-12-26T19:36:18","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T10:36:18","slug":"crypto-santa-rally-definition-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/crypto-santa-rally-definition-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Santa doesn't only ride stocks: is there a \"Santa rally\" in crypto too?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The phrase that shows up every year-end: \"Santa rally\"<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every December, one term never fails to appear in financial news.<br>That is <strong>the Santa rally.<\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"It's year-end, so it'll go up.\"<br>\"Isn't Santa bringing gifts?\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Does this idea apply to the crypto market too?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The short answer:<br><strong>the crypto market has \"had\" Santa rallies too, but they work differently from stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1\ufe0f\u20e3 First, let's define the Santa rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Santa rally is originally <strong>a stock market term.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It generally refers to<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>late December to early January,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>when trading volume falls<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>but stock prices rise<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014 that is what it means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are very practical reasons for this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After year-end portfolio rebalancing, <strong>selling pressure eases.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ahead of the new year, <strong>optimism builds.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Institutions and funds <strong>manage their year-end performance.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words,<br>Not \"prices rise because things suddenly got better,\"<br><strong>but a market that rises because there are fewer sellers<\/strong>for experimenting with tokenized financial products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2\ufe0f\u20e3 So how is the crypto Santa rally different?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The crypto market is structured differently from stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>24-hour trading<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>No year-end market holidays<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Overwhelmingly retail-driven<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A simultaneous global market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So in crypto, the Santa rally<br><strong>is about \"shifts in sentiment\" more than dates.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The crypto version of a Santa rally usually shows up like this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After a sharp drop in November\u2013December stops,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>when bad news no longer feels \"new,\"<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>when more people say, \"Won't next year be different?\"<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49 In other words, a crypto Santa rally<br><strong>is closer to a \"hope recovery rally.\"<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3\ufe0f\u20e3 Has crypto actually had Santa rallies?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has. But <strong>prices didn't rise every time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Early or middle stages of a bull market:<br>\u2192 Year-end rallies happen relatively often<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Late stages of a bear market:<br>\u2192 Often just a short, sharp rebound that fizzles out<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Late stages of a bull market:<br>\u2192 Sometimes there is even a year-end correction instead<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What matters is<br><strong>that a Santa rally is a \"bonus,\" not an \"obligation\"<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4\ufe0f\u20e3 What's the outlook for a crypto Santa rally this year (this cycle)?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is today's crypto market in one sentence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"It's hard to say it's completely over,<br>but nobody is exactly celebrating either.\"<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a market like this, a Santa rally<br>is more likely to be <strong>a rebound that shifts the mood<\/strong>than a massive surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The expected scenarios are as follows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin:<br>rather than a spike, <strong>the decline stops + a test of the top of the range<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Altcoins:<br>a selective rebound <strong>centered on certain themes<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trading value:<br>rather than an explosion, <strong>a quiet recovery<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words,<br>It is less \"Santa arriving with his sleigh\"<br>than **\"the snow stopping and the road coming back into view.\"**<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5\ufe0f\u20e3 The most realistic way to approach a Santa rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Santa rally is not a matter of faith.<br><strong>It is a matter of probabilities and positions.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If prices have already risen too much \u2192 there is little reason to expect one<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If prices are sufficiently depressed \u2192 a small trigger can have a big effect<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The important question is this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">not \"Will Santa come?\"<br>but \"Can my position hold up even if Santa comes?\"<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udccd BITPRESS one-line insight<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Santa rally in the crypto market<br><strong>is not a promised event but a stretch when sentiment briefly catches its breath.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices may rise,<br>and it wouldn't be strange if they don't.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But one thing is clear.<br>The more people expect a Santa rally,<br>the more the market is already pricing in that expectation, bit by bit.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\ub9d0\ub9cc \ub418\uba74 \ub098\uc624\ub294 \uadf8 \ub9d0, \u2018\uc0b0\ud0c0\ub7a0\ub9ac\u2019 12\uc6d4\uc774 \ub418\uba74 \uae08\uc735 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c \ube60\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ub4f1\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uc5b4\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\ubc14\ub85c \uc0b0\ud0c0\ub7a0\ub9ac(Santa Rally) \uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \u201c\uc5f0\ub9d0\uc774\ub2c8\uae4c \uc624\ub974\uaca0\uc9c0.\u201d\u201c\uc0b0\ud0c0\uac00 \uc120\ubb3c \uc8fc\ub294 \uac70 \uc544\ub2c8\uc57c?\u201d \uc774 \ub9d0, \ucf54\uc778 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c\uc694? 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