{"id":7553,"date":"2026-10-31T08:56:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T23:56:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=7553"},"modified":"2026-10-31T08:56:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T23:56:36","slug":"gold-one-year-low-iran-war-fed-rate-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/gold-one-year-low-iran-war-fed-rate-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold falls to a one-year low in wartime. Why?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold dropped to $3,880 an ounce on Oct. 30 (U.S. time). It fell 3.5% in a single day and hit its lowest price in a year, since October 2025. The war that began when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28 is still not over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Common sense says that when war breaks out, gold, a safe-haven asset, rises. That makes this drop look strange. But the key point lies elsewhere. The bigger force moving gold right now is not the war but interest rates. Higher rates mean you earn more interest just by keeping your money parked, and that works against gold, which pays no interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \n
  1. How far has gold fallen from its January high?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Gold hit a record high of $5,608.35 an ounce in January. The current price is about 31% below that. On the same day, silver fell nearly 6% to $48.95 an ounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The slide began right after the war started. According to a March 22 report, gold fell every week after the Feb. 28 airstrikes. Put simply, while the war has dragged on, gold has actually been losing value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Why did the war push up oil prices instead of gold?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures (a U.S. futures broker) pointed out that right now the oil price is inflation (a rise in prices). Walid Sayed of GiveTrade (an online brokerage) laid out the process this way: when oil prices rise, prices in general rise, and when prices rise, central banks lean toward raising interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In order, it goes like this. War, then higher oil prices, then higher inflation, then expected rate hikes, then selling of gold, which pays no interest (the higher rates go, the heavier it is to hold gold, since it earns no interest). It follows the same path as when higher gas prices push up shipping costs and grocery bills. Sayed assessed that in this war gold has not played the safe-haven role people expected, and that oil and the dollar took its place, drawing the money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Why do rising rates work against gold?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Gold pays no interest. One ounce of gold in a vault is still one ounce a year later. Put the same money in a deposit or a government bond, though, and it earns interest. Holding gold means giving up that interest, which is called opportunity cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Consider $10,000. Put it in a product paying 4% a year and you get about $400 over the year (a hypothetical calculation). With gold, you get $0. As rates rise, this gap widens and the price of holding gold grows. It is like working out the interest you would have earned if you had put a jeonse deposit (Korea's lump-sum deposit lease) into a savings account. The difference is that if the price of gold itself rises, you can earn more than the interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. How confident is the market about a rate hike?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          The Fed, the U.S. central bank, raised its benchmark interest rate (the rate set by the central bank that serves as the baseline for interest rates across the market) by 0.25 percentage points on Sept. 16 to 3.75% to 4% a year, then held it steady on Oct. 28. Even while holding, it said \"inflation remains elevated.\" The PCE price index, which measures the cost of goods and services U.S. consumers buy, rose 0.5% in September alone, the biggest jump since March. Third-quarter growth also came in at an annualized 3.4%, above the 3.2% expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          As a result, the market sees about a 75% chance of one more rate hike in December (according to CME FedWatch, a tool that calculates probabilities from interest rate futures, which are prices for trades betting on future rates, as of Oct. 30). Put simply, the economy is strong and prices are high, so there is no sign of a reason to cut rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Could gold actually rise when the war ends?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            A Kitco report listed an easing of Middle East tensions and an end to the energy supply crunch as good news for gold. When oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases and pressure for rate hikes weakens. It is a pattern opposite to common sense: the war has to end before gold can rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            There are dissenting views. Germany's Commerzbank said the drop was excessive and expected a recovery. Sayed saw investors who were trying to make up losses from the tech-stock plunge selling gold to meet margin calls, demands to top up shortfalls in margin (the collateral you must put up when investing with borrowed money) elsewhere. The Fed rate hike that the market put at even odds last March actually came in September. This December expectation could also change again depending on the inflation numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              A safe-haven asset is not an asset that never falls. Gold was strong not when anxiety grew, but when the burden of giving up interest shrank, that is, when rates looked set to fall. This time, the war pushed rates up through oil prices and inflation, which cut into gold's appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              So for people buying or holding gold, the important question is not \"is the world anxious?\" but \"which way are interest rates headed?\" If worrying news works to push rates higher, gold can fall along with everything else. When choosing gold, the benchmark is to look at the direction of interest rates before the size of the anxiety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-30\/gold-prices-plunge-one-year-low-below-3900-higher-oil-prices-fuel-fears<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/10\/29\/gold-slips-as-markets-assess-fed-signals-await-us-inflation-data.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/commodity\/gold<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20261028a.htm<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20260916a.htm<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/business\/markets\/2026\/03\/22\/gold-bitcoin-iran-war\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/san.com\/cc\/gold-just-saw-its-worst-week-in-decades-this-is-how-the-iran-war-is-contributing<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.commsec.com.au\/market-news\/the-markets\/2026\/may-26-why-has-gold-plunged.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              Safe-haven assets<\/strong> \u2014 An asset that is seen as unlikely to fall in value when the economy is shaky, so money flows into it. Gold, the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds are the typical examples.
              Opportunity cost<\/strong> \u2014 The benefit you could have earned from the other choice you gave up by picking something. Holding gold, for example, means giving up deposit interest.
              The Fed<\/strong> \u2014 The U.S. central bank. It sets the benchmark interest rate and moves interest rate levels in the U.S. and around the world.
              PCE inflation<\/strong> \u2014 A gauge of changes in the prices of goods and services U.S. consumers spend money on. The Fed weighs it most heavily when setting interest rates.
              CME FedWatch<\/strong> \u2014 A tool that uses interest rate futures prices to calculate and show the probability the market assigns to Fed rate decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Even as the Iran war continues, gold fell to $3,880 per ounce on Oct. 30, its lowest in a year. Oil prices pushed up by the war fueled inflation and raised expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes, making gold, which pays no interest, a more burdensome asset to hold.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[380],"tags":[1648,1646,1149,1217,1647,554,146,548,1415,553],"class_list":["post-7553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-guide","tag-pce-","tag-1646","tag-1149","tag-1217","tag-1647","tag-554","tag-146","tag-548","tag-1415","tag-553"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc911\uc778\ub370 \uae08\uac12\uc740 1\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc800\u2026 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc740 \uc65c \ube60\uc9c8\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - 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