{"id":749,"date":"2025-12-24T11:17:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T11:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=749"},"modified":"2026-01-02T12:44:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T03:44:10","slug":"tesla-fsd-2026-stock-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/tesla-fsd-2026-stock-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"How Tesla's FSD rollout could affect its stock in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Three changes driven by Tesla's FSD push<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Supporting used-car prices, boosting new-car demand, and recurring revenue<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. FSD moves from \"an option\" to \"the core of a car's value\"<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tesla's **FSD (Full Self-Driving)** is not yet fully autonomous, but<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>its features keep improving through OTA updates,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>and the real driving experience is evolving fast, especially in the U.S.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key to this structure is<br>the perception that, unlike conventional cars that lose value over time,<br>Tesla has priced in <strong>a car's value can hold up or even increase through software updates.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">People start to see a car not as an \"owned asset\"<br><strong>but as an upgradable platform<\/strong>\u2014 that is the turning point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Applying it to the Model S, X and Cybertruck \u2192 the logic of supporting used-car prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once FSD is fully rolled out to certain vehicle classes, the used-car market sees changes like these:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A clear price gap between cars with FSD and cars without it<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slower depreciation for older cars whose hardware supports FSD<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As features improve via OTA, a perception forms that \"the car is old, but the features are the latest\"<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In particular, <strong>Tesla Model S, Model X, Cybertruck<\/strong>As with these,<br>the higher a model's price and the more computing and sensor headroom it has,<br>the stronger the effect of supporting its used-car price is likely to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This, in turn,<br>leads to the perception that **\"Teslas depreciate less over time.\"**<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2-1. Why FSD is still limited on the Model 3 and Y<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">(U.S.-made vs. China-made)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best-selling models on the market today, <strong>Model 3\u00b7Model Y<\/strong>the Model 3 and Y,<br>are seen as the \"real lever\" for spreading FSD,<br>but it is not yet applied equally to every region and every production batch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are two main reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First, regional regulation and data issues<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>United States:<br>In settings where collecting and using autonomous-driving data is relatively unrestricted, Tesla<br>is rapidly expanding the FSD beta<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China:<br>Restrictions on sending <strong>autonomous-driving data overseas<\/strong>,<br>Approval of high-definition maps, algorithm verification and more:<br><strong>government regulation and approval processes are far stricter<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, Model 3 and Y cars built at Tesla's Shanghai plant in China<br>have similar hardware, but<br><strong>the functionality and rollout speed of FSD software are limited<\/strong>for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second, differences in hardware generations (HW)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The latest FSD is optimized for **HW4 (the next-generation computing chip)**<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Some Model 3 and Y cars built earlier<br>run on HW3, with differences in computing power and camera setup<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because of this, Tesla<br><strong>is expanding FSD in the order of high-end models (S, X, Cybertruck) \u2192 latest production \u2192 mass-market models<\/strong><br>\u2014 that is its strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. What if FSD expands to the Model 3 and Y, and to China-made cars?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This point is<br><strong>the key variable for Tesla's earnings leverage from 2026 onward<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Model 3 and Y account for the vast majority of Tesla's total sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China, in particular, is its largest single-country market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the following conditions are met \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FSD regulations eased in China,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FSD applied to Model 3 and Y on the latest hardware,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>wider uptake of FSD by subscription or one-time payment \u2014<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tesla has priced in <strong>without selling more cars,<\/strong>,<br>from its existing vehicle park,<br><strong>Tesla can generate large additional revenue<\/strong>\u2014 that is the structure it will enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not just adding a feature;<br>it is **the moment \"the size of FSD's market itself changes.\"**<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. The conditions for a surge in new-car demand: hardware + software combined<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FSD's progress also directly affects new-car demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FSD can be purchased even after buying the car<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But to make full use of the latest sensors and computing power (HW4), a new car has the edge<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As a result, the view that \"to really use FSD, you need a new car\" grows stronger<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This structure, rather than simple discounts or subsidies,<br><strong>demand in which the technology gap itself becomes the reason to buy<\/strong>\u2014 that is what it creates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, it is not price cuts<br><strong>but feature differentiation that stimulates demand.<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5. Buying FSD add-ons = the rare \"high-margin recurring revenue\" in the auto industry<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The financial meaning of FSD is very simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A car sale is one-time revenue<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FSD is software revenue that can build up as more cars are on the road<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When customers who already own a car<br>buy FSD later<br>or use it by subscription,<br>This resembles <strong>it is extra revenue generated without new production<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a manufacturing point of view,<br>it is a high-margin recurring revenue structure <strong>with almost no cost burden<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason the market is watching this is clear:<br>Tesla is increasingly becoming<br><strong>not a car company but a vehicle-based software platform<\/strong>\u2014 that is why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6. Impact on the stock: a \"structural premium\" more than short-term gains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason FSD is positive for the stock<br>lies not in short-term earnings <strong>but in the structure of its valuation<\/strong>\u2014 that is where the reason lies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A pure automaker \u2192 downward pressure on its P\/E ratio<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A growing share of recurring and software revenue \u2192 keeps its tech-company premium<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The more FSD translates into better real-world driving, looser regulation and a difference consumers can feel,<br>the more likely the market is to re-rate Tesla<br><strong>as an \"auto + AI + subscription revenue\" company<\/strong>\u2014 that is the likely outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, the following must be pointed out clearly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The timing of commercial full self-driving is still uncertain<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The pace of regulation differs by country<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stock volatility may rise when expectations run ahead<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even so,<br><strong>the direction of its revenue structure itself is what the market favors<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">One-line insight<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The essence of FSD is not \"self-driving\"<br>but a structural shift that turns Tesla from a depreciating asset into a recurring-revenue platform.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Especially once it expands to the Model 3 and Y and to the Chinese market,<br>FSD will no longer be an option but<br><strong>the core engine that drives Tesla's earnings and share price<\/strong>is likely to become.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud14c\uc2ac\ub77c FSD \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654\uac00 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubcc0\ud654 \uc911\uace0\ucc28 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc29\uc5b4, \uc2e0\ucc28 \uc218\uc694 \ud655\ub300, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ubc18\ubcf5 \ub9e4\ucd9c \uad6c\uc870 1. 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