{"id":7260,"date":"2026-10-28T12:23:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T03:23:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=7260"},"modified":"2026-10-28T12:23:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T03:23:14","slug":"brazil-election-companies-stablecoins-real-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/brazil-election-companies-stablecoins-real-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil's dollar jumped 8% after the election. Why did companies buy stablecoins the day before?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Monday, Oct. 26, the number of reais (Brazil's currency) needed to buy $1 rose 8.21% in a single day. A higher dollar means a weaker real (about 7.6% weaker when measured in dollars), and it was the biggest one-day move since January 1999. The same day, the Ibovespa, Brazil's main stock index, fell 13.88%, and a circuit breaker (a mechanism that briefly halts trading when stock prices plunge) was triggered for the first time since March 2020. The reason: in Sunday's presidential runoff, President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva had beaten Senator Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, whom the market had expected to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But on that Sunday, election day, trading volume of Tether (USDT) at the Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin rose nearly 800% from the Sunday a week earlier. When crypto trading surges on an election day, it's easy to assume individuals were chasing a quick profit. But 78% of that day's volume at the exchange came from corporate accounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real point is something else. According to the exchange, companies used a dollar stablecoin on a crypto exchange that never closes to buy insurance in advance against the next day's currency spike, on a Sunday when Brazil's stock and currency markets were shut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. It was companies, not individuals, that bought crypto on election day<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    According to Mercado Bitcoin, corporate clients accounted for 78% of total trading volume on Sunday, Oct. 25, and individual clients for 22%. The exchange said, \"The main force driving volume was companies looking to protect their corporate treasuries.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The data also show what they bought. Tether is a stablecoin designed to move in step with $1 per coin. The exchange's Tether volume rose nearly 800% from the Sunday a week earlier, and was more than triple the average of the previous four Sundays. Bitcoin volume also rose 865% that day, so the 78% is not a share of Tether alone. Put simply, the exchange believed companies had effectively bought dollars on the crypto exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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      \n
    1. Why did they have to buy dollars on a Sunday?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Both the runoff and the announcement of the result took place on a Sunday. Mercado Bitcoin said companies wanted to hedge currency risk \"while traditional markets were closed.\" If they waited for the result and tried to buy dollars on Monday morning, they would pay a price that had already jumped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Prices moved first abroad. According to Reuters, during Asian trading hours, before Brazil's markets opened, the November real futures contract fell as much as 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Think of it as travel insurance, which you buy before you leave without knowing whether anything will go wrong. The difference is that if the currency moves the other way, the loss can be bigger than the premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Why did the market swing so hard in a single day?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        The market had bet on the opposite result. The prediction market Kalshi put Bolsonaro's chance of winning at 84% on Oct. 24. Kalshi itself noted that polls showed a dead heat. Three weeks earlier, when Bolsonaro led in the first round, the Ibovespa rose 7.7% and the dollar fell more than 4% against the real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Lula's plans to expand welfare spending and ban online gambling, which would cut tax revenue, fueled worries that the government's finances would worsen. F\u00e1bio Murad of Wiser Asset said, \"Some investors bought stocks and sold dollars in anticipation of this scenario (faster fiscal reform), and now unwinding those trades is amplifying the reaction.\" The Ibovespa, which stood at 205,088 points on Friday, sank to 176,608 on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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          \n
        1. How much did companies that bought Tether in advance protect?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          Suppose a company converted 1 million reais into Tether on Sunday at Friday's closing exchange rate. If Tether moved exactly in step with the dollar, that Tether would be worth about 1.082 million reais at Monday's close. A company that held only reais, by contrast, saw its wealth measured in dollars shrink by about 7.6% in a day (an assumed calculation that leaves out fees and crypto price differences).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          It showed up in crypto prices, too. On Monday, Bitcoin rose 9.4% in reais but fell 0.2% in Tether. CoinDesk read this as the real being repriced, not Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Insurance has a price. If the dollar had fallen 4%, as it did after the first round, the same Tether would have shrunk to about 960,000 reais. Companies accepted that possible loss to guard against a big drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. On Monday, where did the money pile in?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Demand for dollars on crypto exchanges continued on Monday. According to Biscoint, which pools data from 10 exchanges including Binance and Mercado Bitcoin, Tether and USDC (the second-largest dollar stablecoin) traded in reais totaled 1.84 billion reais (about $350 million), 65% more than a week earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            In the stock market, only exporters held up, because a higher dollar raises the real value of the money they earn abroad. Just eight stocks rose that day, and all were exporters. The pulp company Suzano gained 10.08% and the iron ore miner Vale rose 4.01%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              What this episode means is not a \"crypto speculation boom.\" When a big event hit while Brazil's stock and currency markets were closed, then, by the exchange's account, corporate finance teams moved first to the stablecoin market, which never stops. Stablecoins were used as a currency exchange that never closes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              There are limits. The 78% figure comes from a single exchange, and its analyst Pedro Fontes said, \"Stablecoins are a simple way to convert part of your assets into dollars at any time, even starting with small amounts.\" Keep in mind that this comes from a company that sells crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              So when you see news that crypto trading surged on an election day or a weekend, ask two questions. Who bought (individuals or companies)? What did they buy (Bitcoin or a dollar stablecoin)? If companies bought stablecoins, it was not a bet on rising prices but insurance against the next day's exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/business\/2026\/10\/27\/brazilian-companies-turned-to-stablecoins-on-election-day-to-dodge-a-currency-crash<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.infomoney.com.br\/mercados\/ibovespa-hoje-bolsa-de-valores-ao-vivo-26102026\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.jb.com.br\/economia\/2026\/10\/1061362-dolar-sobe-821-e-ibovespa-cai-1388-apos-eleicao.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              Stablecoin<\/strong> \u2014 A coin designed to hold a 1:1 value with a fiat currency such as the dollar.
              Tether (USDT)<\/strong> \u2014 The largest dollar stablecoin, designed so that 1 coin always moves in line with 1 dollar.
              Real<\/strong> \u2014 Brazil's official currency unit.
              Ibovespa<\/strong> \u2014 The main stock index of Brazil's S\u00e3o Paulo exchange (B3).
              Circuit breaker<\/strong> \u2014 A safeguard that briefly halts trading when stock prices plunge by a set amount; this time, trading was halted for 30 minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              On Brazil's presidential runoff day, 78% of Bitcoin trading volume on the crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin came from companies, not individuals. The exchange said that on Sunday, when the stock and foreign exchange markets are closed, companies bought Tether, which is pegged to $1, to prepare for the next day's plunge in the real that would send the dollar up 8.21%.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7261,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[259,1597,1598,1594,1596,260,1599,257,1595,368],"class_list":["post-7260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto","tag-usdt","tag-1597","tag-1598","tag-1594","tag-1596","tag-260","tag-1599","tag-257","tag-1595","tag-368"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\ube0c\ub77c\uc9c8 \ub300\uc120 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub0a0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac12 8% \ud3ed\ub4f1\u2026 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc740 \uc65c \uc804\ub0a0 \uc2a4\ud14c\uc774\ube14\ucf54\uc778\uc744 \uc0c0\uc744\uae4c - 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