{"id":7190,"date":"2026-10-26T09:04:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T00:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=7190"},"modified":"2026-10-26T09:04:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T00:04:56","slug":"korean-won-effective-exchange-rate-still-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/korean-won-effective-exchange-rate-still-weak\/","title":{"rendered":"The won hit a two-year high. Why does the Bank of Korea still call it weak?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The won-dollar exchange rate fell to 1,321.2 won per dollar on Oct. 22, the lowest since Oct. 2, 2024 (1,317.1 won). A falling rate means it takes fewer won to buy one dollar, which is to say the won has gained value. The won has also reached its highest value in about two years against the currencies of Korea's main trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The common reading is that a stronger won puts the 1,200s within sight, and markets are indeed watching for a move into the 1,200s. Yet in the same week, Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Hyun Song Shin said \"the won is still weak.\" The key is what the won is being compared with, and when.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. What does \"a two-year high\" measure?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, an international body of central banks), the won's nominal effective exchange rate was 94.83 on Oct. 20, the highest since Oct. 9, 2024 (94.91). The nominal effective exchange rate measures the won against many currencies at once, giving more weight to the countries Korea trades with most. It sets the 2020 average at 100, and a higher number means a stronger won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Think of a report card. The won-dollar rate is the score in one subject; the effective exchange rate is the weighted average across all subjects. Park Hyung-joong, an economist at Woori Bank, explained that \"because the United States is Korea's biggest export market, the fall in the won-dollar rate is strongly reflected in the nominal effective exchange rate.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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      \n
    1. Why call it weak at a high?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      A \"two-year high\" means the won is back to where it was two years ago, and even then it was below its usual level. The won's nominal effective exchange rate ran at 100 to 103 in 2020 and 2021. By Oct. 9, 2024 it was already lower, at 94.91, and it slid to 91.26 at the end of December 2024, after the martial law crisis, and to 85.9 at the end of February this year, just after the Middle East war broke out. In June, when the won-dollar rate came close to 1,600 won, it fell to 81.99.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Today's 94.83 is about 16% above June and is back to its level of two years ago, but it is still more than 6 points below the average of 101 that Governor Shin cited. It is like a stock that rebounds after a steep fall to hit a \"two-year high\": if the price two years ago was already lower than before, being back there does not mean it has recovered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Why doesn't the BOK governor look at the dollar alone?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        At the Monetary Policy Board press conference on Oct. 22, Governor Shin said: \"The dollar has been strong in recent years, so it is important to look at the BIS effective exchange rate, which takes trading partners' weights into account. At the end of August it was around 89, below its average of 101, so you can say the won is still weak.\" His point is that when the dollar is strong, a rising won-dollar rate cannot tell you whether the won is weak or the dollar is strong. The 89 is the end-of-August figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Adjusting for price differences leads to a similar conclusion. The real effective exchange rate, which factors in price differences with trading partners, was 92.73 in September. It has risen for three months in a row from a low of 83.03 in June and is the highest since November 2024 (93.43), but it is also still below the 2020 average of 100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. What changed for my wallet?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          The monthly average won-dollar rate fell from 1,528.0 won in June to 1,337.2 won in October (Oct. 1\u201323). Say you buy a $100 item from a U.S. online store. At June's average rate it cost 152,800 won; at October's average, 133,720 won. That is 19,080 won less, or about $14 at the October rate of 1,337.2 won per dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          It works the other way for people who earn dollars. Converting $1 million at June's average rate gave 1.528 billion won; at October's average, 1.3372 billion won. Still, by the effective exchange rate the won remains cheaper than its average, so it is too early to say the won has become expensive just because the won-dollar rate fell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Will the rate reach the 1,200s?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            There are forces pushing the won up. Big exporters such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are selling the dollars they earn, and Korea's second-quarter current account surplus (what the country earned from selling goods and services abroad, minus what it paid) was $116.63 billion, second among 36 major economies. The BOK also held its benchmark interest rate on Oct. 22 with a lean toward tightening. On the other side, worries about further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and surging oil prices from the Middle East are named as factors that could push the rate back up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Forecasts differ. A senior research fellow surnamed Seo (as cited by Yonhap) said that with export conditions improving, led by chips, the rate could reach the high 1,200s by the end of this year or early next year. But Seo also said \"the extent to which the won's undervaluation is corrected on a real basis could be relatively limited.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Park Hyung-joong, by contrast, said \"around the mid-1,300s fits the fundamentals\" and estimated that the won is already stronger than its equilibrium level (the rate that fits the economy's strength), so the won-dollar rate could rise again, meaning a weaker won, if conditions change. Two years ago, at a similar level (94.91 on Oct. 9, 2024), the won fell to 91.26 by the end of that year after the martial law crisis in December. \"Already strong\" and \"still weak\" are both heard about the same won because one side uses the level that fits the economy's strength as its yardstick and the other uses the average of the effective exchange rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              \"A two-year high\" and \"still weak\" describe the same won measured against different baselines. The first compares it with its level two years ago, which was already below normal; the second compares it with the average of 101 that the BOK governor cited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Your own judgment depends on the baseline too. The cost of shopping online in dollars or traveling in the United States is set directly by the won-dollar rate. Whether the won has become more expensive overall is shown by how far the effective exchange rate, which compares the won with many currencies, sits from its average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              When you read exchange-rate news, ask first \"compared with what, and when?\" rather than \"how much did it rise?\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.yna.co.kr\/view\/AKR20261025043600002<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.hankyung.com\/article\/2026102535301<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              Nominal effective exchange rate<\/strong> \u2014 The value of the won measured against many currencies at once, with more weight on the countries Korea trades with most; a higher number means a stronger won.
              Real effective exchange rate<\/strong> \u2014 The nominal effective exchange rate adjusted for price differences between Korea and its trading partners.
              2020 = 100<\/strong> \u2014 An index that sets the 2020 average at 100 and compares today's value with it; at 94.83, the won is about 5% weaker than in 2020.
              Bank for International Settlements (BIS)<\/strong> \u2014 An international body of central banks that calculates and publishes effective exchange rates for each country.
              Fundamentals<\/strong> \u2014 The basic strength of a country's economy, such as its growth rate and current account balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              The won's value against a basket of other currencies (the nominal effective exchange rate) rose to 94.83 on Oct. 20, its highest in about two years, but that is still more than 6 points below the average of 101 that the Bank of Korea governor cited as the benchmark. \"Highest in two years\" only means the won has regained its level from two years ago, which was already lower than usual, so it fits with \"still weak\" at the same time.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":7191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[380],"tags":[1586,1588,1587,1585,1274,1584,1273,899,1589,368],"class_list":["post-7190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-guide","tag-1586","tag-1588","tag-1587","tag-1585","tag-1274","tag-1584","tag-1273","tag-899","tag-1589","tag-368"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\uc6d0\ud654\uac12\uc774 2\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uace0\ub77c\ub294\ub370, \ud55c\uc740\uc740 \uc65c \uc544\uc9c1 '\uc57d\uc138'\ub77c\uace0 \ud560\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/korean-won-effective-exchange-rate-still-weak\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\uc6d0\ud654\uac12\uc774 2\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uace0\ub77c\ub294\ub370, \ud55c\uc740\uc740 \uc65c \uc544\uc9c1 '\uc57d\uc138'\ub77c\uace0 \ud560\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\uc5ec\ub7ec \ub098\ub77c \ud1b5\ud654\uc640 \uacac\uc900 \uc6d0\ud654\uac12(\uba85\ubaa9\uc2e4\ud6a8\ud658\uc728)\uc774 10\uc6d4 20\uc77c 94.83\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d 2\ub144 \ub9cc\uc5d0 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud55c\uc740 \ucd1d\uc7ac\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e0 \ud3c9\uade0 101\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 6\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub118\uac8c \ub0ae\ub2e4. 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