{"id":6297,"date":"2026-10-18T11:35:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T02:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=6297"},"modified":"2026-10-18T11:35:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T02:35:30","slug":"kospi-dead-cat-bounce-real-bottom-foreign-selling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/kospi-dead-cat-bounce-real-bottom-foreign-selling\/","title":{"rendered":"After a 20.7% Plunge and a 2% Rebound in KOSPI, How Can You Tell a 'Dead-Cat Bounce' From a Real Bottom?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KOSPI, South Korea's main stock index, fell for seven straight trading days from Oct. 6 to 15, losing 20.7%. On Oct. 15 alone it dropped 7.57%. On the 16th it rose 2.05% to close at 5,668.05, and foreign investors were net buyers of about $258 million (343 billion won) on the Korea Exchange's main market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After a fall this big, a rise makes it easy to think the market has hit bottom. In fact, the four times this year that KOSPI plunged more than 10% and then recovered took 14.25 trading days on average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the key point lies elsewhere. Whether a rebound is real depends not on how much the index rose, but on whether the reasons that pulled it down have gone away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A Dead-Cat Bounce Is a Rebound That Comes While the Cause Remains<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A dead-cat bounce is a brief jump in a stock price that has been plunging. The term comes from a cynical saying that even a dead cat will bounce if it is dropped from high enough. It is a technical rebound after a drop that was too steep, so unless fundamentals such as earnings improve, prices tend to fall again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Think of it as the difference between a fever coming down after a fever reducer and actually getting over the cold. The thermometer may read the same, but if the cause remains, the fever rises again. With stocks, however, it is hard to tell which one it is at the moment of the rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This Year, KOSPI Took an Average of 14 Trading Days to Recover From Four Plunges<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An analysis of Korea Exchange data shows that this year KOSPI has fallen more than 10% over two or more consecutive trading days and then recovered four times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table><thead><tr><th>Period<\/th><th>Drop<\/th><th>Time to recover<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Feb. 27\u2013Mar. 4<\/td><td>19.2%<\/td><td>34 trading days<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mar. 26\u201331<\/td><td>10.4%<\/td><td>6 trading days<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>June 4\u20138<\/td><td>14.9%<\/td><td>7 trading days<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>July 28\u201330<\/td><td>17.2%<\/td><td>10 trading days<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average of the four is 14.25 trading days, about three weeks. It was a year in which money kept flowing in on expectations for the memory chip business, lifting the index from the 6,000 level to the 9,000 level. Put simply, this year's fast recoveries came amid a market that was rising as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Same 10.4% Plunge, but the One in Early July Has Not Yet Recovered<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From July 6 to 8, KOSPI fell 10.4% in three trading days and was pushed below the 8,000 level, which it has not won back to this day. The late-March plunge was the same 10.4%, yet the outcomes differed. That means the size of a drop alone does not tell you whether a recovery will come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the past, recoveries have sometimes taken years. In August 2011, when fears of a recession triggered by the U.S. and China sent the market down 17% in six trading days, it took three and a half years to make up the whole loss. Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, pointed out that in cases where rebounds failed, such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, economic and credit shocks were added or profit forecasts were cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Foreign Selling Was at the Center of This Plunge<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brokerages point to record selling by foreign investors, centered on large chip stocks, as the cause of KOSPI's weakness this time. Foreigners were net sellers on the Korea Exchange's main market for seven straight trading days through the 14th, and on the 14th alone they sold about $883 million (1.18 trillion won) worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Foreign ownership of chip stocks fell to the 48% range, the lowest since 2010. Lee Sang-joon, an analyst at NH Investment &amp; Securities, said selling pressure from foreigners could ease once funds finish being reallocated for the initial public offering of Anthropic (a U.S. generative AI developer), scheduled for early November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Oct. 16 Rebound Was Worries Easing, Not the Cause Being Resolved<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Oct. 16 rebound included rebound buying after the previous day's crash. Seo Sang-young, an executive director at Mirae Asset Securities, named remarks by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as the main catalyst. Huang said the financial health of CoreWeave, which had stoked worries about AI investment, is improving every day, and Seo saw this as easing AI credit risk (worry over whether companies that borrowed heavily to invest in AI can handle their debts). He added, however, that \"AI companies' credit risk has not been resolved,\" and said it needs to be confirmed during earnings season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Foreigners were also divided. That day they were net buyers of about $258 million (343 billion won) in stocks but net sellers of about $856 million (1.14 trillion won) in KOSPI 200 futures (trades that buy and sell the index's future value in advance). In numbers, the size of the rebound is also small. Someone who put $10,000 into KOSPI on Oct. 2 would have about $8,090 at the Oct. 16 close, and would need a further gain of about 24% to get back to the original amount (hypothetical calculation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"6\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A Real Bottom Is Judged by Foreign Selling and Profit Forecasts<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the 14th, before the Oct. 15 crash, Kim Seok-hwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, said, \"Good earnings can put a floor under a decline, but without a new group of buyers it is hard to create an uptrend.\" So he advised checking first whether the intensity of foreign selling eases, rather than a one-day bounce in the index. He added that if foreign selling continues and companies' profit estimates are cut as well, it goes beyond a simple supply-and-demand adjustment and investment decisions need to be reconsidered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analyst Lee Jae-won assessed that neither a crisis across the financial system nor structural damage to memory chip profit forecasts has been confirmed at this point. However, he said that for the plunge to calm, foreign selling must weaken and buyers who can absorb it must come in first. Their wording differs, but what both looked at was not the size of a one-day rebound but whether foreign selling is weakening and whether profit forecasts hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"7\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year's fast recoveries came when money kept flowing in on expectations for the memory chip business. This time, foreign selling was at the center of the plunge. So whether this rebound is a bottom depends less on how many percent the index rose than on whether the intensity of foreign selling is easing and whether profit forecasts are holding up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2.05% gain on Oct. 16 does not yet say which of the two it is. Whether the fever has only dropped briefly or the cold has actually gone can be known only by looking at the cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ask first whether the reason for the fall is still there, rather than whether the rebound is big. If foreigners keep selling and profit forecasts are cut as well, that rebound is not a bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sources<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnnews.com\/news\/202610180835335107\">https:\/\/www.fnnews.com\/news\/202610180835335107<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/nocutnews.co.kr\/news\/6592983\">https:\/\/nocutnews.co.kr\/news\/6592983<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/biz.heraldcorp.com\/article\/10906057\">https:\/\/biz.heraldcorp.com\/article\/10906057<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.getnews.co.kr\/news\/articleView.html?idxno=883817\">https:\/\/www.getnews.co.kr\/news\/articleView.html?idxno=883817<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/kbmaeil.com\/article\/20261014500700\">https:\/\/kbmaeil.com\/article\/20261014500700<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fnnews.com\/news\/202610141358128462\">https:\/\/www.fnnews.com\/news\/202610141358128462<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.hankyung.com\/article\/202607232165i\">https:\/\/www.hankyung.com\/article\/202607232165i<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dt.co.kr\/article\/12089611\">https:\/\/www.dt.co.kr\/article\/12089611<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Glossary<\/strong><br><strong>Dead cat bounce<\/strong> \u2014 A brief jump in a plunging stock price without any improvement in fundamentals, which tends to be followed by another fall.<br><strong>Technical rebound<\/strong> \u2014 A rise that happens not because fundamentals such as company earnings changed, but because short-term bargain buying came in on the judgment that prices had fallen too fast.<br><strong>KOSPI 200 futures<\/strong> \u2014 A trade in which you buy and sell, in advance, at a set price, the future value of an index made up of the 200 largest KOSPI stocks.<br><strong>Foreign ownership ratio<\/strong> \u2014 The share of a stock's total shares held by foreign investors.<br><strong>Credit risk<\/strong> \u2014 The risk that a borrower may not repay a debt on time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc62c\ud574 \ucf54\uc2a4\ud53c\ub294 10% \ub118\uac8c \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4\uac00 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud55c \ub124 \ubc88\uc744 \ud3c9\uade0 14.25\uac70\ub798\uc77c \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ub418\ucc3e\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc, 7\uc6d4 \ucd08 10.4% \uae09\ub77d \ub54c \ubc00\ub824\ub09c 8,000\uc120\uc740 \uc544\uc9c1 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \uc9c4\uc9dc \ubc14\ub2e5\uc778\uc9c0\ub294 \uc624\ub978 \ud3ed\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc774\uc775 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294\uc9c0\ub85c \uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[380],"tags":[1424,1421,208,678,1425,1422,1426,1423,387],"class_list":["post-6297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-guide","tag-1424","tag-1421","tag-208","tag-678","tag-1425","tag-1422","tag-1426","tag-1423","tag-387"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - 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