{"id":6269,"date":"2026-10-18T11:08:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-18T02:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=6269"},"modified":"2026-10-18T11:08:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T02:08:08","slug":"gold-silver-drawdown-gap-industrial-demand-central-banks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/gold-silver-drawdown-gap-industrial-demand-central-banks\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold fell 25% from its peak, silver 53%. Same precious metals, so where did the gap come from?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Spot gold hit a record of about $5,590 an ounce on Jan. 28 and has fallen to $4,166 as of Oct. 16. Silver went from $121.62 on Jan. 29 to $56.99. According to Metalcharts, as of Oct. 18 gold is 25.5% below its peak and silver is 53.2% below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold and silver are often lumped together as \"safe-haven\" assets, so it is easy to assume they rise and fall by similar amounts. Yet over the same nine months, silver's drop was more than double gold's.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the key point lies elsewhere. The two metals have different buyers. More than half of silver demand comes from factories, while gold kept being bought by central banks even at prices below its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \n
  1. Hit by the same shock, silver fell nearly three times as far as gold<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Silver rose as much as 72% intraday during January. On Jan. 30, the day President Trump named Kevin Warsh (a former Fed governor known as tough on inflation) as the next chair of the Fed (the U.S. central bank), silver futures fell 31.37% in a single day to $78.53. Gold fell 11.39% the same day. The market took the nomination as good news for the dollar and bad news for precious metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Just before that, CME, the U.S. futures exchange, had raised the margin on silver futures from 9% to 11%. Margin is the deposit you put up when you buy a futures contract. When the rate goes up, holding the same amount costs more, and the heavier the bet someone made with little money, the bigger the burden. It is a bit like being told to add to your jeonse deposit (Korea's lump-sum deposit lease) in the middle of the lease. The difference is that with futures, if you cannot put up more, you have to close out the contracts you hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. 58% of silver demand comes from factories<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      According to the Silver Institute (a global silver industry group), total silver demand in 2025 was 1.13 billion oz, of which industrial demand (silver used by factories) was 657.4 million oz. That is about 58%. For gold, the World Gold Council reports that of 1,269 tonnes of total demand in the second quarter this year, technology uses such as electronics accounted for only 80 tonnes, or about 6% (silver is an annual figure, gold a quarterly one).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Put simply, most gold goes to jewelry, investment and central bank holdings, while more than half of silver is used as a factory material. That means the price of silver depends heavily on how much silver factories use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. When silver got pricier, solar companies started using less of it<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        In 2025, factory demand for silver fell 3% after rising four years in a row. In its April report, the Silver Institute expected it to fall another 3% in 2026. The biggest reason is solar. Silver demand from solar fell 6% in 2025 to 186.6 million oz and is expected to fall another 19% in 2026, to about 151 million oz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        After the average silver price rose 42% in 2025, panel makers cut the amount of silver in each cell and looked for other methods. It is like a bakery changing its recipe to use less flour when flour prices jump. In effect, the price rise cut the very demand that had been supporting that price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Gold had a big buyer that kept buying even at prices below the peak<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          According to the World Gold Council, central banks made net purchases of 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter. That is 62% more than the 177.9 tonnes of a year earlier. The average gold price that quarter was $4,506 an ounce, below the January peak. Gold ETFs (gold investment products traded like stocks) saw net outflows of 45 tonnes in the same quarter, but central banks bought about six times that amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          For the first half as a whole, however, purchases were 345 tonnes, the lowest since 2022, because Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan sold large amounts of gold in the first quarter. Even so, the World Gold Council said central banks plan to keep buying over the next 12 months. On the silver side, the part that grew was investment demand for silver coins and silver bars, which rose 14% in 2025, and the April report forecast an 18% increase this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Interest rates press on both, but silver swings more<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            On Oct. 12, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.24%, and that day the market put the odds of the Fed raising rates at least once by December at 87.7%. Gold and silver pay no interest. The higher the interest on deposits and government bonds, the more it costs to hold a metal that pays none.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence said silver's 260-day volatility is 5.1 times that of the S&P 500 (an index of 500 large U.S. companies), the highest since 1980. He said the last time silver's price and volatility were this high was the 1979-80 surge, and he saw the area around $50 as the first support level. This time, solar companies' silver savings are layered on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              Much of the reason the drops differed, even though both metals faced the same wind of interest rates and the dollar, lies in who buys them. Gold kept being bought by central banks even after its price fell below the peak, while silver faced shrinking factory demand and then a heavier futures margin burden. Under the same \"precious metal\" label, silver moved more like an asset tied to factory activity than gold did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              So if you buy silver as a \"precious metal cheaper than gold,\" it may swing more than you expect. Gold is the one with buyers who can support it when it falls, and silver is the one that falls harder when industrial demand and investor sentiment weaken together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Before putting money into precious metals, there is one thing to ask first: is this vault money that can hold up even if the price falls, or money you are betting on factory activity?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/metalcharts.org\/precious-metals-all-time-highs<\/a>
              https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/commodity\/gold<\/a>
              https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/commodity\/silver<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.philstar.com\/business\/2026\/02\/02\/2505043\/silvers-worst-day<\/a>
              https:\/\/silverinstitute.org\/?p=20226<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.miningstockeducation.com\/2026\/04\/elevated-lease-rates-regional-liquidity-tightness-and-robust-investor-interest-resulted-in-record-silver-prices-in-2025\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.pv-magazine-india.com\/2026\/04\/16\/silver-demand-from-pv-industry-expected-to-drop-19-this-year\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/gold-demand-trends\/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/gold-demand-trends\/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026\/central-banks<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-12\/gold-silver-soften-markets-price-december-fed-hike-risk-kitco-pm-report<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/article\/2026-10-13\/silver-prices-could-be-headed-back-50-bloombergs-mcglone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              Margin<\/strong> \u2014 The deposit you put up with the exchange when trading futures (margin); if the exchange raises the rate, holding the same position costs more.
              Futures<\/strong> \u2014 A trade in which you agree to buy or sell at a set price on a set date; you can trade a large amount by putting up only a deposit.
              The Silver Institute<\/strong> \u2014 A silver industry group that publishes an annual report on global silver demand and supply.
              World Gold Council<\/strong> \u2014 A gold industry group that publishes quarterly statistics on global gold demand.
              Volatility<\/strong> \u2014 A measure of how much a price swings up and down; the higher it is, the more the price jumps around from day to day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Since their all-time highs in January, gold has fallen 25.5% and silver 53.2%. Factories account for 58% of silver demand, and solar companies have started using less of the pricier silver, while central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, even after prices dropped below their peak.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6278,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[336],"tags":[1416,1149,329,1419,1418,554,1420,1415,1417,604],"class_list":["post-6269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-overseas-stocks","tag-1416","tag-1149","tag-329","tag-1419","tag-1418","tag-554","tag-1420","tag-1415","tag-1417","tag-604"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\uae08\uc740 \uace0\uc810\uc11c 25%, \uc740\uc740 53% \ud558\ub77d\u2026 \uac19\uc740 \uadc0\uae08\uc18d\uc778\ub370 \uaca9\ucc28\ub294 \uc5b4\ub514\uc11c \uc0dd\uacbc\uc744\uae4c - 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