{"id":5805,"date":"2026-10-15T12:18:04","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T03:18:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=5805"},"modified":"2026-10-15T14:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T05:01:48","slug":"fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. rate-hike odds jumped after the inflation report. Who sets that number?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Oct. 14 (U.S. time), when U.S. consumer prices for September came in 3.7% higher than a year earlier, above the 3.6% the market expected, the odds of an October rate hike jumped from 22.1% a day earlier to 51.5%. A U.S. report that afternoon put them at 35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's (the U.S. central bank's) policy rate is the starting point for what it costs to borrow money in the U.S. Higher odds of a hike are read as a sign that loan interest could rise further. So people often take the number as an official forecast that \"the Fed is now more likely than not to raise rates.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the real story is elsewhere. Neither the Fed nor economists set this probability. It is worked out backward from the prices of futures that investors buy and sell with real money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Where does the 'rate-hike probability' in the news come from?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The number is called FedWatch. It is a calculator built by CME Group, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (an exchange where futures on interest rates and commodities are traded), and its only ingredient is 30-day fed funds futures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    These futures are traded on what the U.S. policy rate will average over a month. The price is set as 100 minus the expected rate. For example, a contract trading at 95.67 means the market expects an average rate of 4.33% for that period (an illustrative example).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So a falling futures price means investors expect rates to go higher. Think of it like prices on a secondhand marketplace app. The difference is that a secondhand price is the value of an item, while this price is the value placed on an expectation: next month's interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. How does a futures price become a probability?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      FedWatch assumes the Fed moves rates in steps of 0.25 percentage point. It looks at where today's price sits between the price that fits a hold and the price that fits a 0.25-point hike, and turns that position into a percentage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Take some illustrative numbers. If 96.10 fits a hold and 95.85 fits a hike, and the actual price sits right in the middle at 95.975, the chance of a hike is 50%. The real calculation also splits the month by the number of days before and after the meeting, so when the meeting falls late in the month, the gap between the two prices is much smaller than this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      A quarter point looks small, but on a KRW 100 million loan whose rate rises by that much, a year's interest goes up by KRW 250,000 (a hypothetical calculation; the U.S. policy rate does not pass straight through to Korean loan rates). On Sept. 16 the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point for the first time in three years, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Another hike in October would take it to 4.00% to 4.25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. How much did the number move on the day of the inflation report?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        U.S. consumer prices in September rose 0.6% from the month before, the biggest monthly increase in five months. A 9.1% one-month jump in gasoline prices made up more than half of the rise. It was the last inflation reading before the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The odds of an October hike, 22.1% before the report, became 51.5% right after it. By Bloomberg's measure they briefly reached 55% before easing to about 40%, and a U.S. report that afternoon put them at 35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Put simply, the Fed decided nothing, yet investors' views changed several times in a single day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. So is this probability a forecast?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          The FedWatch number is not a survey or an outlook. It is a price. Which side investors have put more money on, a hike or a hold, becomes the number directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Think of betting odds before a sports game. The odds shift depending on where the money flows, but the players decide the result. The difference is that rates are decided not by players but by Fed officials voting at a meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          In fact, according to Bloomberg, most Fed watchers expect the Fed to hold this month and push the next hike to December. On the same day, the CME FedWatch probability rose as high as 51.5%. In other words, expert forecasts and market bets can differ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. How did this number move in September?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            The same thing happened before the September meeting. On Sept. 3, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller sounded cautious about a September hike, the odds of a September hike fell about 12 percentage points within minutes, from roughly 67% to 54.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Then on Sept. 16 the Fed did raise rates. What rose and fell was not the decision but investors' thinking. What is different this time is that the last inflation reading before the meeting is already out. The Fed enters its 'blackout' period on Oct. 17, when officials limit public remarks, so from then until the meeting there will be no officials' comments to move the odds either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              If you read a '50% chance of a hike' as 'the Fed has half decided' when choosing a loan or trading U.S. stocks, your judgment goes astray. The number means futures prices are sitting roughly halfway between a hold and a hike. A single inflation report sent it from 22.1% to 51.5%, and on the same day it was reported as 54% or 35% depending on the outlet and the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              That is why the news that moved the number tells you more than how high or low it is. If one inflation report pushed it up nearly 30 percentage points, the market has become that sensitive to inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              One rule to remember: the rate-hike probability is not the Fed's answer. It is investors' judgment, baked into today's futures prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.busan.com\/view\/busan\/view.php?code=2026101509231536564<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.etoday.co.kr\/news\/view\/2635927<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.g-enews.com\/article\/Global-Biz\/2026\/10\/202610150813472569a1f309431_1<\/a>
              https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/economy\/policy\/articles\/fed-interest-rate-hike-seems-195052044.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/economy\/policy\/articles\/inflation-came-hotter-expected-last-131418698.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/investinglive.com\/education\/how-waller-moved-the-fed-rate-hike-odds-by-12-points-in-minutes-a-look-inside-cme-fedwatch\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.frenzycap.com\/fedwatch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              FedWatch<\/strong> \u2014 A tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that uses federal funds futures prices to calculate and show the odds of a rate hike or hold at the next Fed meeting.
              30-day fed funds futures<\/strong> \u2014 A product traded on what the average US benchmark interest rate will be over a month; its price is 100 minus the expected rate.
              Percentage point<\/strong> \u2014 A unit for the difference between two percentages; if a rate goes from 3.75% to 4.00%, it has risen 0.25 percentage points.
              Blackout<\/strong> \u2014 The period before a Fed meeting when members refrain from public comments on monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              \ubbf8\uad6d 9\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \ub4a4 10\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc804 22.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 51.5%\ub85c \ub6f0\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3c8\uc744 \uac78\uace0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uafb8\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uac19\uc740 \ub0a0 \uc624\ud6c4 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d4 35%\ub85c \ub098\uc62c \ub9cc\ud07c \ubcf4\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uac01\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4 \u2014 \ub300\ucd9c\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ud310\ub2e8 \ub54c ‘\uacb0\uc815\ub41c \uc0ac\uc2e4’\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc9c0\uae08 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uac74 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc77d\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5917,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[380],"tags":[1364,1361,329,1360,1363,1352,1362,146,213,1331],"class_list":["post-5805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-guide","tag-cme","tag-cpi","tag-329","tag-1360","tag-1363","tag-1352","tag-1362","tag-146","tag-213","tag-1331"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\ubbf8\uad6d 9\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \ub4a4 10\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc804 22.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 51.5%\ub85c \ub6f0\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3c8\uc744 \uac78\uace0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uafb8\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uac19\uc740 \ub0a0 \uc624\ud6c4 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d4 35%\ub85c \ub098\uc62c \ub9cc\ud07c \ubcf4\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uac01\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4 \u2014 \ub300\ucd9c\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ud310\ub2e8 \ub54c '\uacb0\uc815\ub41c \uc0ac\uc2e4'\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc9c0\uae08 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uac74 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc77d\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub2e4.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/68ddf2e21db5fdfa891eec89d5b6a54d\"},\"headline\":\"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":58,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp\",\"keywords\":[\"CME\",\"CPI\",\"\uae08\ub9ac\",\"\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\",\"\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\",\"\ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\",\"\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\",\"\uc5f0\uc900\",\"\uc7ac\ud14c\ud06c\",\"\ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\ud22c\uc790 \uac1c\ub150\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/\",\"name\":\"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp\",\"width\":1080,\"height\":1440,\"caption\":\"osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/\",\"name\":\"BitPress : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4\",\"description\":\"\ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uac00\uc0c1\ud654\ud3d0\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\ubd80\ud130 \uad6d\ub0b4\uc678 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uae4c\uc9c0, \uc8fc\uc694 \ub274\uc2a4\uc640 \uc774\uc288\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"BitPress : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/bitpress_fb_og.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/bitpress_fb_og.webp\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":630,\"caption\":\"BitPress : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/68ddf2e21db5fdfa891eec89d5b6a54d\",\"name\":\"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bitpress.kr\\\/en\\\/author\\\/bitpress-editorial\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4","og_description":"\ubbf8\uad6d 9\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \ub4a4 10\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ud558\ub8e8 \uc804 22.1%\uc5d0\uc11c 51.5%\ub85c \ub6f0\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub3c8\uc744 \uac78\uace0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\uafb8\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12\uc774\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uac19\uc740 \ub0a0 \uc624\ud6c4 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d4 35%\ub85c \ub098\uc62c \ub9cc\ud07c \ubcf4\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uac01\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4 \u2014 \ub300\ucd9c\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ud310\ub2e8 \ub54c '\uacb0\uc815\ub41c \uc0ac\uc2e4'\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc9c0\uae08 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uac74 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc77d\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub2e4.","og_url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/","og_site_name":"BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4","article_published_time":"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1080,"height":1440,"url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures.webp","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/"},"author":{"name":"\ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 \ud3b8\uc9d1\ud300","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#\/schema\/person\/68ddf2e21db5fdfa891eec89d5b6a54d"},"headline":"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c","datePublished":"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/"},"wordCount":58,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp","keywords":["CME","CPI","\uae08\ub9ac","\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960","\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac","\ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00","\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c","\uc5f0\uc900","\uc7ac\ud14c\ud06c","\ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58"],"articleSection":["\ud22c\uc790 \uac1c\ub150"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/","name":"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp","datePublished":"2026-10-15T03:18:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-15T05:01:48+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures-1.webp","width":1080,"height":1440,"caption":"osc_bitpress_fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/fedwatch-rate-hike-probability-cpi-futures\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub6f4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\u2026 \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \ub204\uac00 \ub9e4\uae38\uae4c"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/","name":"BitPress","description":"From Bitcoin, crypto and coins to Korean and global stocks, we lay out the flow of the news and the issues that matter.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#organization","name":"BitPress","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bitpress_fb_og.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/bitpress_fb_og.webp","width":1200,"height":630,"caption":"BitPress : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/#\/schema\/person\/68ddf2e21db5fdfa891eec89d5b6a54d","name":"BITPRESS Editorial Team","url":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/author\/bitpress-editorial\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5805"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5805\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5815,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5805\/revisions\/5815"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}