{"id":5693,"date":"2026-10-14T13:47:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T04:47:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=5693"},"modified":"2026-10-14T13:47:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T04:47:27","slug":"fed-williams-no-hike-2027-market-bets-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/fed-williams-no-hike-2027-market-bets-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed says no rate hikes next year. Markets disagree. Where does the gap come from?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the Fed's first hike since 2023. In a Bloomberg interview on Oct. 13, New York Fed President John Williams said he had not changed his view that \"one more rate hike\" may be appropriate, but that for 2027 he did not see \"any reason to believe that we would need to do more.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the same day, the rate futures market put the odds that the Fed's rate ends 2027 at least half a percentage point above today's level at about 90%. A higher benchmark rate means borrowing money gets more expensive. With the FOMC's vice chair saying hikes end this year, it is tempting to conclude the worst of the rate worries is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the real story lies elsewhere. The gap between the two is one hike next year, and the biggest swing factor for that one hike is not what the Fed says but the price of oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Why does Williams say hikes end this year?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Williams is vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's rate-setting body, and votes at every meeting. He expects overall inflation next year to fall to near the Fed's 2% target. He gives two reasons: the tariffs will be \"totally in the rearview mirror,\" and energy prices will stop adding to inflation next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    He added a caveat, though: \"it's still mid-October,\" and \"we just have to keep watching the data.\" Put simply, \"no hikes next year\" is not a promise. It is a forecast that rests on tariffs and oil prices fading as expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. What are markets betting on?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Rate futures are contracts that traders buy and sell based on where they think the Fed's rate will be. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders on Oct. 13 were mostly betting that the Fed would raise rates at least once more in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      If the Fed moves a quarter point at a time, half a point means two hikes. If it stops after one more this year, as Williams suggests, the rate tops out at 4.00% to 4.25%; if markets are right, it reaches 4.25% to 4.50% or higher (hypothetical calculation). In the end, the gap is one hike next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      It is not that markets ignore Williams. After he said on Sept. 29 that there was no urgency to hike again, investors priced out a hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting. On the near-term timing, markets followed his lead; where they part ways is next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      For someone repaying a 300 million won (about $210,000) 30-year loan in equal monthly installments, half a point is not small. At 4.0% the monthly payment is about 1.43 million won; at 4.5% it is about 1.52 million won, roughly 88,000 won (about $63) more every month (hypothetical calculation). The U.S. benchmark rate does not directly set Korean loan rates, but this shows how big half a point is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Fed officials do not agree either<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Williams does not speak for the whole Fed. Of the 18 officials who gave a rate forecast for 2027, eight see one more increase next year after an additional hike this year. Williams is with the majority, but nearly half of the officials are drawing a picture close to the market's.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Also on the 13th, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she expects the Fed to raise rates a bit further before the end of the year. Her reason: higher prices for diesel, jet fuel and heating oil will keep both headline and core inflation above target in the coming months. On Sept. 22 she had already written that she saw an increased likelihood of scenarios in which inflation stays notably above 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Why does oil decide the gap?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices in August were up 3.4% from a year earlier. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was 2.4%. Over the same period, energy prices jumped 16.3% and gasoline 27.4%, and gasoline accounted for over one third of August's monthly increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded at about $107 a barrel on the morning of Oct. 13, about $44 higher than a year earlier. Put simply, much of what pushed U.S. prices up in August came from the gas pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Think of a grocery receipt. The total is up 3.4%, but cross out the food and fuel lines and it is up 2.4%. Williams expects the fuel line to stop rising next year. The catch, as Reuters noted, is that price pressure from supply shocks such as the war with Iran is hard to counter by raising interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Eamonn Sheridan of investingLive argued that Williams' benign outlook assumes energy will not add to inflation next year, so a renewed surge in crude would undercut that view and strengthen the case for more tightening. \"For now, oil is effectively a direct input into Fed pricing,\" he wrote, meaning the rate path markets price in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. Whose money does the gap affect?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            For people who own U.S. stocks or dollar assets, or who time a loan around interest rates, the gap comes down to one more move next year. If markets are right, borrowing costs rise once more; if Williams is right, even if rates go up once more this year, that could be the last hike of the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The next checkpoints are already set. September consumer prices are released on Oct. 14 (U.S. time), and the Fed's next meeting is Oct. 27-28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              The Fed and markets agree on direction: both see room for one more hike this year. Where they split is one hike next year, and that hike depends less on what Fed officials say than on whether oil drops out of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              So for anyone with U.S. stocks or a loan, the headline \"the Fed says hikes end next year\" is not a conclusion but a forecast with a condition attached. If oil stays high, the market's picture gains ground; if oil eases, Williams' picture does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              A central banker's \"we're done\" is only as good as the assumption beneath it. Whether that assumption holds, this time the price of oil, decides the direction of rates more than the words themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/10\/13\/john-williams-fed-rate-hikes-2027.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/economy\/policy\/articles\/feds-williams-currently-sees-no-183000358.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/investinglive.com\/central-banks\/icymi-three-fed-officials-signal-inflation-fight-continues-williams-sees-no-2027-hike\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/cpi_09112026.htm<\/a>
              https:\/\/fortune.com\/article\/price-of-oil-10-13-2026\/<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.kitco.com\/news\/off-the-wire\/2026-09-22\/feds-collins-says-she-supported-rate-hike-warns-elevated-inflation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              FOMC<\/strong> \u2014 The Federal Reserve's committee that sets the benchmark interest rate.
              Rate futures<\/strong> \u2014 Contracts traded on where the benchmark rate will be, whose prices show what rate the market expects.
              FedWatch<\/strong> \u2014 A CME Group tool that uses rate futures prices to calculate the odds of each Fed rate decision.
              Core inflation<\/strong> \u2014 Inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices, used to see the underlying trend.
              Brent crude<\/strong> \u2014 Crude oil from the North Sea, used as the global benchmark for oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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