{"id":5418,"date":"2026-10-12T10:25:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T01:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=5418"},"modified":"2026-10-12T11:11:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T02:11:57","slug":"us-saving-rate-consumer-spending-wall-street-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/us-saving-rate-consumer-spending-wall-street-worry\/","title":{"rendered":"Americans are spending more. Why is Wall Street worried?"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. households' consumer spending rose 0.9% in August from July. After-tax income rose only 0.3% that month. Over the past year, spending is up 6.1% and after-tax income 4.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The usual reading is that Americans are spending freely, so the economy and stocks must be fine. Indeed, the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.95 on Oct. 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the real point lies elsewhere: where did the money come from for spending that grew faster than income? The answer is savings. The U.S. personal saving rate was 4.1% in August, the lowest since November 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. Are Americans really spending more than they earn?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    To be precise, they are growing their spending faster than their earnings. In August, U.S. household spending rose $190.8 billion, while after-tax income rose $68.6 billion. The increase in spending was about 2.8 times the increase in income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The gap was covered by savings. The saving rate (the share of after-tax income that isn't spent) fell from 4.4% in April through June and 4.6% in July to 4.1% in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Picture a household taking home $4,000 a month. At a 4.6% saving rate it puts aside $184 a month; at 4.1%, $164 (hypothetical). It's like a family whose paycheck has barely changed but whose card bill has already grown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Where did the extra spending go?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      August's spending gain was led by gasoline and other energy, restaurants and hotels, and autos. Spending on energy goods and services jumped 2.5% in a month as gasoline prices rose sharply. Even excluding energy, though, spending rose 0.8%. Part of the gain is also a rebound, since spending rose only 0.1% in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The gap is clearer after inflation. Real spending rose 0.6% in August, but real after-tax income was flat (0.0%). The PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) was up 3.4% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Put simply, Americans are spending faster than their income is growing, and saving less as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Why does this spending matter for U.S. stocks?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. domestic final spending. When household wallets get thinner, companies selling goods and services inside the U.S. feel it first in their sales. Households spend \u2192 company sales rise \u2192 profits rise \u2192 stock prices rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The S&P 500 is up 14% this year and on Oct. 6 hit its first record high since mid-August. Tech stocks and AI optimism did the heavy lifting, with solid corporate earnings and a resilient U.S. economy also credited. Third-quarter earnings reports start coming out the week of Oct. 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Think of a neighborhood store. If a regular customer's paycheck hasn't changed but they put less into savings to shop more, the store has a great month. The difference from a customer who got a raise is that once there's little left to cut from savings, next month's shopping basket gets lighter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. What is Wall Street worried about?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          Economists at U.S. asset manager First Trust, including chief economist Brian Wesbury, wrote in their note on the August data that \"this low level of saving allows for more spending today but isn't sustainable long-term.\" U.S. investing site Verified Investing argued that spending propped up by a falling saving rate lasts only as long as that cushion does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The site said that if real after-tax income fails to grow again in the September data (due Oct. 29), retail, restaurant and travel stocks risk a weak fourth quarter after a strong third. Nor does the Fed (the U.S. central bank) have much reason to cut rates. Core inflation is running at 3.0% a year, above its 2% target, and the Fed actually raised rates by 0.25 percentage point in mid-September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          There is a counterpoint. PNC, a U.S. bank, noted that the annual data revision released alongside the August figures raised July's saving rate from 3.0% to 4.6%, easing worries about overstretched consumers. It also pointed out that higher-income households are benefiting from the strong stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. How is this different from 2022?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            The last time the saving rate was lower than now was November 2022 (4.0%). Back then, U.S. households were spending down extra savings they had built up in 2020-21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Verified Investing says there is no such stockpile this time. As it put it, \"In 2022 the cushion was excess savings. In 2026 the cushion is the saving rate itself.\" Instead of dipping into an emergency fund, households are paying living costs by putting less into savings each month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n
              \n
            1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              For anyone holding U.S. stocks, news that \"U.S. spending is up\" is only half good news. Spending that comes from rising income can last, but spending that comes from lower saving may be future spending pulled forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              This is especially true for stocks that depend directly on American household wallets, such as retail, restaurants and travel. Even if third-quarter earnings look good, the fourth-quarter story depends on whether those sales came from income or from lower saving. Of course, some, like PNC, think household finances look better than expected after the data revision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              So when you read U.S. consumer news, ask first not how much spending rose, but whether people are spending within their income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Sources
              https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2026\/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.ftportfolios.com\/Commentary\/EconomicResearch\/2026\/9\/30\/personal-income-rose-0.2percent-in-august<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.pnc.com\/content\/dam\/pnc-com\/pdf\/aboutpnc\/EconomicReports\/EconomicUpdates\/2026\/PNC_Economics_Research_PCE_2_October_2026.pdf<\/a>
              https:\/\/verifiedinvesting.com\/blogs\/us-economic-metrics\/pce-august-2026<\/a>
              https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/10\/06\/investing\/us-stocks-bonds<\/a>
              https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/stocks\/articles\/wall-st-futures-rise-yields-102708822.html<\/a>
              https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/personal-spending<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n\n\n\n

              Glossary<\/strong>
              Saving rate<\/strong> \u2014 The share of after-tax income that is not spent; 4.1% means $4.10 saved out of every $100 earned.
              After-tax income<\/strong> \u2014 Income minus taxes: the money a household can actually spend or save.
              Real spending<\/strong> \u2014 Spending measured after stripping out price increases, showing how much more people actually bought.
              Earnings reports<\/strong> \u2014 Listed companies report sales and profits every three months; the stretch when many report at once is called earnings season.
              Annual data revision<\/strong> \u2014 Once a year, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis adds new data and recalculates past income and spending figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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