{"id":4720,"date":"2026-10-09T10:12:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T01:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=4720"},"modified":"2026-10-09T10:12:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T01:12:24","slug":"samsung-record-profit-stock-fall-etf-rebalancing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/samsung-record-profit-stock-fall-etf-rebalancing\/","title":{"rendered":"Samsung said it earned KRW 107 trillion in a single quarter. Why did its stock fall that day?"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Oct. 8, Samsung Electronics reported third-quarter operating profit (what is left from sales after the cost of goods and running costs) of KRW 107.4 trillion. It was the first time a Korean company topped KRW 100 trillion in a single quarter. Yet its stock closed that day down 2.42% at KRW 262,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A record profit sounds like it should lift the stock. But the real story is elsewhere. The stock reacted not to the size of the number but to how far it was from expectations, and that day also brought selling that had nothing to do with the results, plus pressure from US interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \n
  1. How big is KRW 107 trillion?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Sales were KRW 195 trillion and operating profit KRW 107.4 trillion. Compared with the same quarter last year, sales rose 126.6% and operating profit 782.5%. Even against the previous quarter, sales were up 13.7% and operating profit 20.0%. The operating margin was 55.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Put simply, Samsung kept KRW 551 out of every KRW 1,000 of sales. These are preliminary results, though, so profit by business, such as chips, has not been released yet. Samsung will hold a conference call on its final results on Oct. 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. Why wasn't such a big number surprising?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Analysts' estimates were already close to this number. The operating profit estimate compiled by FnGuide (a financial data firm that collects brokerage forecasts) was KRW 106.6401 trillion. The actual figure was KRW 759.9 billion, or about 0.7%, higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      It is like scoring 100.7 on a test where everyone expected about 100. The score is high, but everyone saw it coming. On top of that, sales of KRW 195 trillion fell short of market forecasts in the KRW 200 trillion range. Some also raised the possibility that the higher earnings expectations were already priced into the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. How much selling had nothing to do with the results?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        That day was the regular rebalancing day for chip ETFs (funds that hold a basket of stocks and trade like a single stock). Goldman Sachs said seven chip ETFs with about KRW 19 trillion in assets would make their regular changes on the 8th, which could create selling demand for Samsung shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        For example, as of Sept. 29, Samsung made up 27.1% of the TIGER Semiconductor TOP10 ETF. The index this ETF tracks caps any single stock at 25%. Think of a lunchbox rule that one side dish may fill only a quarter of the box. With the weight 2.1 percentage points over the cap, the setup could produce selling to trim the excess, regardless of results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Samsung Securities estimated that about KRW 200 billion of Samsung shares could come up for sale in the process. On the other side, it expected buying demand of around KRW 90 billion for SK hynix and KRW 80 billion for SK Square. Options expiration (the day the right to buy or sell shares at a preset price runs out) fell on the same day, raising worries that trading could swing sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Why did US interest rates weigh on Samsung?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          The night before, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.36% during the day, its highest since 2002, and Wall Street fell across the board under that pressure. Higher Treasury yields mean you earn more interest just by buying safe US government bonds. That weakens the case for keeping money in stocks, whose prices go up and down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the Fed panel that sets US interest rates), released on the 8th, also showed most participants saw one more rate hike by year-end as likely appropriate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The KOSPI closed that day down 2.62% at 6,625.93. Foreign investors sold KRW 1.988 trillion more than they bought and institutions KRW 1.671 trillion more, while individuals bought KRW 2.906 trillion more than they sold. In other words, big investors pulled money out of the whole market, not just Samsung. Samsung's drop was actually 0.20 percentage points smaller than the KOSPI's.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, \"Profit-taking came right after the earnings release, and the stock weakened,\" adding, \"With pressure from interest rates and oil prices continuing, even Samsung Electronics' stock fell, and investor sentiment shrank.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            The people whose decisions this news changes are those who own Samsung stock or plan to buy it on earnings day. If you held KRW 10 million of it, you lost about KRW 240,000 that day (simple example). Looking only at the KRW 107 trillion figure, that loss makes no sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            But what moved the stock that day was not the size of the number. Beating the estimate by 0.7% was no surprise. On top of that came profit-taking right after the release, about KRW 200 billion of possible selling from the ETF basket rule (Samsung Securities' advance estimate), and pressure from US interest rates, all on the same day. Of these, the ETF selling is money that could come out regardless of the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The rule of thumb: on earnings day, a stock is explained first not by \"how much did it earn?\" but by \"how much more than expected did it earn?\" and \"was there money that had to be sold that day regardless of the results?\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            Sources
            https:\/\/news.samsung.com\/kr\/%EC%82%BC%EC%84%B1%EC%A0%84%EC%9E%90-2026%EB%85%84-3%EB%B6%84%EA%B8%B0-%EC%9E%A0%EC%A0%95%EC%8B%A4%EC%A0%81-%EB%B0%9C%ED%91%9C<\/a>
            https:\/\/www.hankyung.com\/article\/2026100814056<\/a>
            https:\/\/www.financialpost.co.kr\/news\/articleView.html?idxno=279504<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            Glossary<\/strong>
            Operating profit<\/strong> \u2014 The profit from a company's core business: sales minus the cost of goods and running costs.
            Preliminary results<\/strong> \u2014 Results a company estimates and announces before its books are closed; final results come later.
            Estimate<\/strong> \u2014 The figure brokerages forecast in advance; the market watches whether actual results beat or miss it.
            ETF rebalancing<\/strong> \u2014 Regularly resetting the share of each stock an ETF holds so it matches the rules of the index it tracks.
            Options expiry<\/strong> \u2014 The day the right to buy or sell shares at a preset price runs out; related trades pile up and prices tend to swing.
            KOSPI<\/strong> \u2014 The main index of South Korea's stock market, similar to the S&P 500 in the US.
            Net selling by foreign investors and institutions<\/strong> \u2014 In Korea, daily trading is reported by investor group; net selling means a group sold more shares than it bought that day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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