{"id":3473,"date":"2026-10-02T08:40:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T23:40:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=3473"},"modified":"2026-10-02T08:40:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T23:40:34","slug":"anthropic-ipo-nasdaq-100-fast-entry-etf-selling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/anthropic-ipo-nasdaq-100-fast-entry-etf-selling\/","title":{"rendered":"Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO: why ETFs must sell Nvidia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Oct. 1 reports, Anthropic (the U.S. company behind the AI chatbot Claude) is pursuing a plan to start marketing its IPO as early as the week of Nov. 9 and begin trading before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. Valuations of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion are being discussed among investors. The timing is still under discussion and could change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This news is usually read as a sign of how far the AI boom has come. There were also reports that the offering could match or exceed SpaceX's, which had been expected to be the largest ever. But a story closer to individual investors lies elsewhere. Even someone who never applied for a single IPO share may end up buying Anthropic if they own a Nasdaq-100 ETF, and that money comes from selling a little of existing holdings like Nvidia and Apple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It could join the index just 15 trading days after listing<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since May 1, the Nasdaq-100 (an index of large non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq) has used a \"fast entry\" rule. There are two conditions. The company must list on the Nasdaq, and its market value (market capitalization, the whole company's worth priced by its stock) must rank within the top 40 among companies already in the index. It can then join the index 15 trading days after listing, without waiting for the regular rebalance date (the set time when the index provider reselects its stocks).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There were reports that Anthropic chose the Nasdaq as its listing venue, but the company has not confirmed it. The Nasdaq-100 holds only Nasdaq-listed companies. If Anthropic goes to the New York Stock Exchange, this story doesn't apply. If it lists in late November, it may wait for the December regular rebalance instead of fast entry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nobody leaves, so everyone shrinks a little<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Usually, when one stock joins an index, one stock leaves. Fast entry is different. Nothing leaves, and the index holds more than 100 stocks for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So room for the new stock is made by all the other stocks together. If the new stock joins at a 1% weight, each existing stock shrinks by about 1% of its own share. ETFs that track the index exactly sell existing stocks and buy the new one to match these proportions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft give up the most money because they have the biggest weights in the index. They are not being singled out for selling. It is like a pizza shared at a table: when one more guest sits down, everyone cuts off a bit of their slice, and whoever has the biggest slice gives up the most. Unlike pizza, though, the new guest's share is set not by size but by how many shares can actually be bought and sold on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Even at a valuation of up to $2 trillion, the weight could start around 1%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eligibility is judged by total market value, but the weight is set by a smaller number: whichever is smaller of the total listed value and three times the value of the free float (shares that trade freely on the market).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX (Elon Musk's space company) listed with less than 5% of its shares on the market. With a free float under 5%, even three times its value is a small part of the total listed value, so the weight is set by the smaller figure, \"three times the free-float value.\" That is why, despite being valued at more than $2 trillion at the time of entry, it joined the Nasdaq-100 at a weight of about 1%. Someone who put $100 into QQQ, the flagship ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100, effectively owned about $1 of SpaceX. One analysis suggested Anthropic's initial weight could also be around 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weight is not fixed. The Nasdaq updates free-float share counts every quarter. As locked-up shares are released, that is, shares under a lockup (a promise that executives and existing investors won't sell for a set period after listing), the free float grows and the weight rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Index fund buying of SpaceX was estimated at about $4 billion or more<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX listed on June 12. According to pre-listing materials, the expected offering price was $135 a share and the valuation about $1.75 trillion, and it targeted raising more than $75 billion in what was expected to be the largest IPO ever. It joined the Nasdaq-100 before the open on July 7, and funds tracking QQQ started buying after the close on July 6, the day before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Options analytics firm SpotGamma estimated Nasdaq-100 tracking funds' purchases of SpaceX at about $4 billion or more. That money came from selling a little of every existing stock in proportion. According to The Motley Fool, more than 200 products track the Nasdaq-100, with assets of more than $800 billion. SpotGamma estimated total tracking assets at more than $1.4 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Put simply, a lot of money moves at once, but the amount taken from any one stock is a small part of what is held in that stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"5\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Index funds buy just before entry, not on listing day<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SpaceX listed on June 12, but funds following QQQ did not buy that day. They bought after the close on July 6, the day before entry, at a price the market had already set over several weeks. As of The Motley Fool's Sept. 23 article, SpaceX's stock was well below its post-listing high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is also a difference this time. On June 4, the company that manages the S&amp;P 500 index dropped its own proposal to add large new listings quickly. To join the S&amp;P 500, a company still needs 12 months since listing and four straight quarters of GAAP (U.S. accounting standards) profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anthropic was reported to have had 2025 revenue of about $4.6 billion and a net loss of about $42 billion. More than $34 billion of the net loss came from changes in the book value of liabilities. So S&amp;P 500 ETFs won't buy Anthropic for now; the quick buyers are funds tracking indexes with fast-entry rules, like the Nasdaq-100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"6\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It reaches Korean investors in two ways<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nasdaq-100 ETFs listed in Korea track the same index. An ETF that tracks the index exactly would, when Anthropic joins, sell a little of its existing stocks in the same way to buy Anthropic. In a hypothetical calculation, someone who invested KRW 10 million would hold about KRW 100,000 of Anthropic (hypothetical) if it joins at a 1% weight, and the holdings of Nvidia, Apple and the other stocks would shrink by that much. The total invested stays the same; only the mix changes (excluding exchange rates and costs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The other way is SK Telecom. SK Telecom holds 3,860,330 Anthropic shares, with a book value of KRW 3.505 trillion in the first half of this year. An August Newspim report assumed the current book value reflects an Anthropic valuation of $965 billion and, by simple conversion, put the stake at about KRW 7.26 trillion if the valuation reaches $2 trillion. Applying Newspim's method to $1.8 trillion, a BITPRESS calculation puts it at about KRW 6.54 trillion. However, if new shares are issued at listing, the ownership percentage shrinks, and the actual value will also vary with the offering price and lockup terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"7\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BITPRESS Insight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For someone who owns a Nasdaq-100 ETF, the key number in Anthropic's listing is not the valuation of up to $2 trillion being discussed but the share of stock released to the market. However large the valuation, a small free float means the index weight starts small, and so does the amount taken from existing stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ETFs sell Nvidia not because Nvidia is bad, but because of an index rule that trims every stock's weight in proportion when a new one joins. How much this selling will move Nvidia's stock can't be known from the data available now. What is clear is that the size of that selling is proportional to weight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rule of thumb is simple: when a big new stock joins an index, the money comes from the other stocks in the index, and its size is set not by valuation but by the shares released to the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sources<br><a href=\"https:\/\/nairametrics.com\/2026\/10\/01\/anthropic-targets-november-ipo-at-1-8-trillion-to-2-trillion-valuation\/\">https:\/\/nairametrics.com\/2026\/10\/01\/anthropic-targets-november-ipo-at-1-8-trillion-to-2-trillion-valuation\/<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-10-01\/anthropic-said-to-target-mega-ipo-before-thanksgiving-holiday\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-10-01\/anthropic-said-to-target-mega-ipo-before-thanksgiving-holiday<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/09\/23\/anthropic-could-join-the-nasdaq-100-only-15-trading-days-after-its-ipo-just-like-spacex-did\/\">https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2026\/09\/23\/anthropic-could-join-the-nasdaq-100-only-15-trading-days-after-its-ipo-just-like-spacex-did\/<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/spotgamma.com\/spacex-ipo-index-changes-spotgamma\/\">https:\/\/spotgamma.com\/spacex-ipo-index-changes-spotgamma\/<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newspim.com\/news\/view\/20260824001138\">https:\/\/www.newspim.com\/news\/view\/20260824001138<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Glossary<\/strong><br><strong>Nasdaq100<\/strong> \u2014 An index of large non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq; ETFs like QQQ buy exactly what it holds.<br><strong>Fast entry<\/strong> \u2014 A Nasdaq-100 rule that adds a new listing on the Nasdaq whose market value (market capitalization) ranks in the index's top 40, 15 trading days after listing, without waiting for the regular rebalance date.<br><strong>Free float<\/strong> \u2014 The part of a company's shares, excluding insider holdings and the like, that can be bought and sold freely on the market.<br><strong>Lockup<\/strong> \u2014 A promise that executives and existing investors won't sell their shares for a set period after listing.<br><strong>Regular rebalance<\/strong> \u2014 The index provider's periodic reselection of the stocks in an index and their weights.<br><strong>Index ETF<\/strong> \u2014 A fund that buys the stocks in an index in the same proportions, so its value moves with the index.<br><strong>GAAP<\/strong> \u2014 U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, the standard rules U.S. companies use to report profit and loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">BITPRESS articles are information to help your investment decisions, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or coin. Investment decisions and their results are your own responsibility.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc564\ud2b8\ub85c\ud53d\uc774 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ud558\uba74 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 ETF\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5 15\uac70\ub798\uc77c \ub4a4 \uc564\ud2b8\ub85c\ud53d\uc744 \uc0ac\uac8c \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uace0, \uadf8 \ub3c8\uc740 \uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544\u00b7\uc560\ud50c \ub4f1 \uae30\uc874 \uc885\ubaa9\uc744 \uc870\uae08\uc529 \ud314\uc544 \ub9c8\ub828\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ucd5c\ub300 2\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac70\ub860\ub418\ub294 \ubab8\uac12\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc9c0\uc218 \ube44\uc911\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ud480\ub9b0 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ud574\uc838, \uc2a4\ud398\uc774\uc2a4X\ub294 \uc57d 1%\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac14\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3474,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[336],"tags":[445,339,1017,1019,1016,203,337,877,477,1018],"class_list":["post-3473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-overseas-stocks","tag-etf","tag-ipo","tag-qqq","tag-sk","tag-1016","tag-203","tag-x","tag-877","tag-477","tag-1018"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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