{"id":1362,"date":"2026-06-02T13:30:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T04:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=1362"},"modified":"2026-06-02T13:35:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T04:35:09","slug":"bitcoin-drops-rises-war-ceasefire-risk-off-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/bitcoin-drops-rises-war-ceasefire-risk-off-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Bitcoin falls when war breaks out, and why it rises when war ends"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why Bitcoin falls when war breaks out, and why it rises when war ends<\/p>\n\n\n\n

URL Slug: bitcoin-drops-rises-war-ceasefire-risk-off-2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tags (comma): Bitcoin, BTC, U.S.-Iran war, U.S.-Iran ceasefire, geopolitical risk, risk-off, ETF outflows, IBIT, BlackRock, Strategy, short squeeze Tags (#): #Bitcoin #BTC #USIranWar #USIranCeasefire #GeopoliticalRisk #RiskOff #ETFOutflows #IBIT #BlackRock #Strategy #ShortSqueeze<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As of June 2, 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the $71,000 range. That is down more than 13% in about a month from early May, when it topped $82,000. A renewed U.S.-Iran military clash, the longest-ever streak of ETF outflows and Strategy's sale of Bitcoin have piled on. Yet just two months earlier, in April, Bitcoin jumped more than 5% within hours of news of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. We look at past cases and the current phase to see why news of war and peace is so directly tied to Bitcoin's price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \n
  1. Where the market stands now<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    As of June 1, Bitcoin traded below $73,000, down 1.4% from the previous day, and Ethereum slipped 2.1% to $1,980. The drop was not the result of a single event but an extension of the compounding negatives that have built up since mid-May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    From May 15 to 29, money flowed out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs for 10 straight trading days. Total outflows reached $2.97 billion, the first run of 10 consecutive net outflows since the ETFs launched. BlackRock's IBIT alone lost $2.11 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    On top of that, news that Strategy had sold 32 Bitcoin for about $2.5 million further soured market sentiment. It was Strategy's first sale of Bitcoin in years. The symbolism of Bitcoin's best-known institutional buyer turning seller for the first time stoked investor anxiety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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      \n
    1. Why does war news drag Bitcoin down?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      When war or a geopolitical crisis erupts, investors quickly sell risk assets to minimize uncertainty and move money into safe havens. This is called ‘risk-off’ sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u2605 Note: Risk-off \u2014 the mindset and behavior in which investors, as uncertainty rises, sell high-risk assets such as stocks and crypto and move money into safe havens such as the dollar, government bonds and gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In this situation, Bitcoin is classified as a risk asset, not a safe haven. If the dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold are where money flows in a crisis, Bitcoin and altcoins sit on the opposite side. As of 2026, Bitcoin's price correlation with gold is -0.27, actually moving in the opposite direction, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has risen to 0.75. That means institutional risk models effectively classify Bitcoin as a ‘high-beta risk asset.’<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u2605 Note: High-beta asset \u2014 an asset that moves more than the market as a whole. It tends to rise 2% when the market rises 1%, and fall 2% or more when the market falls 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Another reason Bitcoin is sold first in wartime is liquidity. Bitcoin can be turned into cash instantly, 24 hours a day, even in the early morning or on weekends when stock markets are closed, so it becomes the first asset institutions dump when they urgently need dollar liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. So will it rise when the war ends? Checking the record<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        There are real cases where news of a war ending or a ceasefire led to a Bitcoin rally. But there are conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        In November 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended. In the 30 days after the ceasefire agreement was signed, Bitcoin nearly doubled. The end of the war did not change the global easing stance, and with the Fed's plan to buy $120 billion of bonds a month still in place, money flowed into risk assets across the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the early pattern was striking. Right after the invasion, Bitcoin plunged 8% to $34,300. But four days later it rebounded 14.5%, its biggest daily gain in more than a year, and in March it climbed to around $47,000, 27% above its pre-invasion level. In this case, once the initial shock of the war was absorbed, Bitcoin drew attention as an alternative currency amid instability in the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        In April 2026, the current U.S.-Iran conflict produced a direct ceasefire effect. When President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, Bitcoin jumped to $72,700 and oil prices plunged more than 10% to around $95 a barrel for WTI. In the process, $427 million worth of crypto short positions were forcibly liquidated within 48 hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u2605 Note: Short squeeze \u2014 when short sellers who bet on falling prices are forced to buy to stem their losses as prices rise against them. This buying fuels further gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        During this ceasefire phase, Bitcoin rose about 5% while S&P 500 futures gained just 0.4%, far outpacing major traditional assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. But a ceasefire does not guarantee a rally<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          For ceasefire news to lead to a rally, certain conditions must be met. In March 2022, hopes for a ceasefire briefly emerged in Russia-Ukraine talks, but when the Fed announced a 0.5 percentage point rate hike, Bitcoin fell 12% instead. Easing geopolitical tension alone is not enough; the macro variables of interest rates and liquidity also have to line up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The current market environment makes those conditions hard to meet. With 10 straight days of net ETF outflows, inflation worries sparked by rising oil prices and weakening retail demand all combining, Bitcoin has failed to join Wall Street's AI-driven rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n
            \n
          1. The levels the market is watching now<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended May with $2.3 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly outflow of 2026 and the biggest since November 2025. Although Bitcoin's price fell only 3.69% in May, the outflows were about 10 times February's net outflow of $206 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Technically, $73,869 is seen as the key reference level. Some argue that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim it, the door is open to a further correction to $70,000 or even $68,000. Others note that a resumption of U.S.-Iran talks and a turn from ETF outflows back to inflows could provide the catalyst for a rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            BITPRESS Insight<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The key lesson of this phase is one thing. Bitcoin has become an asset that falls on war and rises on ceasefires, but for that rally to last, resolving the geopolitics alone is not enough. Oil prices need to come down, the Fed needs room to cut rates, and ETF money needs to turn back toward inflows. Unless all three line up at once, ceasefire news ends up as nothing more than a trigger for a short-term bounce. The market right now is moving not on geopolitics itself but on how those geopolitics affect the Fed and oil prices. When the U.S.-Iran situation shifts again, the practical yardstick is to check first what signal the news sends about interest rates and energy prices, rather than the news itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n\n\n\n

            Sources https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/daybook-us\/2026\/06\/01\/bitcoin-remains-under-pressure-as-etf-outflows-higher-oil-prices-weigh-on-crypto-markets<\/a>
            https:\/\/decrypt.co\/369600\/bitcoin-2-month-low-strategy-sells-btc-etfs-flip-negative-year<\/a>
            https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/spot-bitcoin-etfs-post-first-10-day-outflow-streak-what-next-for-btc<\/a>
            https:\/\/beincrypto.com\/bitcoin-price-prediction-june-2026<\/a>
            https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/04\/08\/bitcoin-u-s-stock-futures-surge-on-a-two-week-u-s-iran-ceasefire<\/a>
            https:\/\/www.financemagnates.com\/trending\/bitcoin-price-prediction-april-2026-iran-ceasefire-and-427m-short-squeeze-set-up-btc-80k-breakout-test<\/a>
            https:\/\/crypto.com\/en\/market-updates\/btc-price-strait-of-hormuz-reopening<\/a>
            https:\/\/www.panewslab.com\/en\/articles\/8k53xr62fi82<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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