{"id":1154,"date":"2026-02-13T15:52:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T06:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=1154"},"modified":"2026-02-14T08:35:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T23:35:33","slug":"hbm4-nand-ddr-demand-explosion-semiconductor-rally-end-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/hbm4-nand-ddr-demand-explosion-semiconductor-rally-end-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"HBM4, NAND and DDR demand explodes: when will the chip rally break?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With AI data center investment topping $600 billion a year, demand for HBM4, NAND flash and DDR RAM is surging. Chip stocks are riding this wave to record gains, but attention is turning to how long the rally can last. A macro analysis based on current data (February 2026) points to structural growth through at least 2027, after which slowing growth and volatility are likely to be the key themes.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aicerts.ai\/news\/infrastructure-capital-surge-inside-ais-5t-data-center-boom\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ai---2030-5\">AI infrastructure investment: a $5 trillion marathon through 2030<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core driver of today\u2019s chip demand boom is AI data centers. According to McKinsey, cumulative investment in AI-specific infrastructure (servers, GPUs, memory, power) is expected to reach $5.2 trillion by 2030.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aicerts.ai\/news\/infrastructure-capital-surge-inside-ais-5t-data-center-boom\/\"><\/a>\u200b<br>Hyperscaler (Big Tech) capital spending in 2026 is about $600 billion, with 75% of it concentrated on AI accelerators and servers.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/introl.com\/blog\/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026\"><\/a><br>HBM (high-bandwidth memory&lt;sup&gt;\u203bultra-fast memory essential for AI GPUs&lt;\/sup&gt;), DDR (system memory&lt;sup&gt;\u203bfor server operating systems and general tasks&lt;\/sup&gt;) and NAND flash (SSD storage&lt;sup&gt;\u203bfor storing large volumes of data&lt;\/sup&gt;) are essential components of this infrastructure and move together.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ainvest.com\/news\/tsmc-2026-scaling-ai-infrastructure-curve-2601\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unlike the PC and smartphone cycles of the past, this structure is closer to a \u201ctransformation of the world\u2019s core IT infrastructure.\u201d<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/introl.com\/blog\/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hbm4--2027--2\">HBM4 demand: 2027 mass production signals a second wave<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">HBM4 is the next-generation memory set to take off in 2026\u20132027. TSMC\u2019s 2nm-class processes (N2P, A16&lt;sup&gt;\u203bmaximizes power efficiency with a backside power rail&lt;\/sup&gt;) enter mass production in the second half of 2026 and will be paired with Nvidia\u2019s Rubin and other Blackwell-successor GPUs.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ainvest.com\/news\/nvidia-plans-silicon-carbide-switch-rubin-chips-tsmc-eyes-2027-timeline-2509\/\"><\/a><br>From 2025 to 2027, supply shortages are likely to persist as the industry shifts from HBM3E to HBM4.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ainvest.com\/news\/tsmc-2026-scaling-ai-infrastructure-curve-2601\/\"><\/a><br>Gartner estimates that AI hardware spending will hover around $2 trillion in 2026, underpinning memory demand.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aicerts.ai\/news\/infrastructure-capital-surge-inside-ais-5t-data-center-boom\/\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On top of AI servers, DDR and NAND will get extra demand from AI PC and smartphone upgrade cycles, keeping supply tight through 2027.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.delloro.com\/2026-predictions-data-center-infrastructure\/\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How long will the chip rally last? The outlook by period<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Period<\/th><th>Key events<\/th><th>Rally outlook<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2026<\/td><td>Hyperscaler capex of $600 billion; HBM3E peaks<\/td><td>Strong growth continues; share prices move higher<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2027<\/td><td>HBM4 and 2nm mass production; AI spending tops $2 trillion<\/td><td>Second wave of momentum; volatility rises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2028 and beyond<\/td><td>Investment becomes more efficient; the architecture S-curve flattens<\/td><td>Growth slows; winners and losers diverge<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The earnings-upgrade cycle stays strong through 2026, but price corrections and slower investment become variables from 2027.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.delloro.com\/2026-predictions-data-center-infrastructure\/\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3\">Signs of a turning point: rates, competition and efficiency<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the rally ends will depend more on macro variables than on peak demand. A resumption of Fed rate hikes or a shift by Big Tech toward ROI-driven investment could trigger a correction.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/know.creditsights.com\/insights\/technology-hyperscaler-capex-2026-estimates\/\"><\/a><br>If AMD and Intel close in on Nvidia\u2019s dominance, customer risk could come to the fore.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/introl.com\/blog\/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026\"><\/a><br>GPU prices ($20,000\u201330,000 per unit) remain high, but efficiency gains are expected to squeeze margins.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ainvest.com\/news\/tsmc-2026-scaling-ai-infrastructure-curve-2601\/\"><\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">BITPRESS Insight<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Think of AI infrastructure capex like a \u201cbond\u201d: the absolute amount keeps growing through 2030, but early high returns (the HBM4 transition in 2026\u20132027) give way to stable returns (from 2028). Companies with strong process and customer diversification, such as TSMC and SK hynix, are more than 30% more likely to keep their pricing power in the later phase (based on less than 50% dependence on Nvidia). This is not a simple supply-demand play; it is a signal that it\u2019s time to approach the sector with a \u201cstability premium\u201d strategy for the middle-to-late stage of the S-curve.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AI \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc13c\ud130 \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc5f0\uac04 6,000\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub3cc\ud30c\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08, HBM4\uc640 \ub0b8\ub4dc\ud50c\ub798\uc2dc, DDR \ub7a8 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc8fc\uc2dd\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774 \ubb3c\uacb0\uc744 \ud0c0\uace0 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacfc\uc5f0 \uc774 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b8\uc81c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420\uc9c0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\uc2dc\uc801 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac(2026\ub144 2\uc6d4) \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uba74, \ucd5c\uc18c 2027\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub098 \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud0a4\uc6cc\ub4dc\uac00 \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. AI \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud22c\uc790, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"bitpress_en_title":"","bitpress_en_desc":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[517,516,358,514,515,208],"class_list":["post-1154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-it-business","tag-ai","tag-ddr","tag-hbm4","tag-tsmc","tag-515","tag-208"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>HBM4\u00b7\ub0b8\ub4dc\u00b7DDR \uc218\uc694 \ud3ed\ubc1c, \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc5b8\uc81c \uaebe\uc77c\uae4c? - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/hbm4-nand-ddr-demand-explosion-semiconductor-rally-end-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"HBM4\u00b7\ub0b8\ub4dc\u00b7DDR \uc218\uc694 \ud3ed\ubc1c, \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc5b8\uc81c \uaebe\uc77c\uae4c? - BITPRESS : \ube44\ud2b8\ud504\ub808\uc2a4 - \ud22c\uc790\u00b7\ucf54\uc778\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AI \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc13c\ud130 \ud22c\uc790\uac00 \uc5f0\uac04 6,000\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub3cc\ud30c\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08, HBM4\uc640 \ub0b8\ub4dc\ud50c\ub798\uc2dc, DDR \ub7a8 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc8fc\uc2dd\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774 \ubb3c\uacb0\uc744 \ud0c0\uace0 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacfc\uc5f0 \uc774 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b8\uc81c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420\uc9c0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc3e0\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\uc2dc\uc801 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac(2026\ub144 2\uc6d4) \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uba74, \ucd5c\uc18c 2027\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub098 \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud0a4\uc6cc\ub4dc\uac00 \ub420 \uc804\ub9dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 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