{"id":1088,"date":"2026-02-02T12:38:47","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T03:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=1088"},"modified":"2026-02-02T12:51:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T03:51:02","slug":"bitcoin-80k-crash-next-bull-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/bitcoin-80k-crash-next-bull-conditions\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s real crisis began after it broke below $80,000: 4 conditions for the next bull market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s four-month losing streak: what is different this time<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin, which topped $120,000 in October 2025, finally gave up even the $80,000 level in late January 2026, posting four straight monthly red candles.<\/a>
Both the length and depth of the decline are too large to call a simple correction; it recalls the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last week of January alone, Bitcoin plunged 5\u20137% within 24 hours and fell below $80,000 twice in two days.<\/a>
Over the same period, Ethereum and Solana dropped more than 10%, and about $100 billion was wiped off the total crypto market cap.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Reason 1: the \u2018Warsh effect\u2019 and macro repricing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most notable event in this sell-off was President Trump\u2019s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair.<\/a>
Warsh took a relatively hawkish stance during the financial crisis, and markets priced in a signal of \u201cno excessive easing,\u201d starting to cut leverage across risk assets.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, Bitcoin barely reacted even as the dollar index slid to near a four-year low and gold and silver prices rallied strongly.<\/a>
For money that came in believing the \u201cdigital gold\u201d narrative, Bitcoin can only look like an awkward asset that neither moves like a traditional safe haven nor rises like a growth stock.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Reason 2: spot ETF flows went \u2018into reverse\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US spot ETFs, which kicked off the rally in early 2024, became a main driver accelerating the decline in January 2026.<\/a>
Net outflows for January totaled about $1.6 billion, the third-largest monthly outflow since launch, and it was the first time money had flowed out for three months in a row.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Structurally, ETFs can create a positive feedback loop of \u201cspot buying \u2192 rising prices \u2192 more inflows,\u201d but when the direction turns, it becomes a negative loop of \u201cspot selling \u2192 falling prices \u2192 more redemptions.\u201d<\/a>
We are now closer to the latter, with the institutional buying story that powered the 2025 rally running in reverse.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Reason 3: thin liquidity and derivatives liquidations deepened the drop<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The late-January plunge was concentrated in weekends and overnight hours, when liquidity is thinnest.<\/a>\u200b
During these windows, long positions built up in both spot and futures were liquidated all at once, creating a market that slid in the short term \u201cnot because of sellers, but because there were no buyers.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to on-chain and derivatives data, about $1.4 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated in the last 24 hours alone.<\/a>\u200b
With spot ETF selling and leverage liquidations overlapping, a structure emerged in which prices overreacted even to relatively minor news.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Reason 4: on-chain indicators point to an \u2018ambiguous zone\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The reason it is hard to call the market either on the verge of collapse or a golden buying opportunity lies in on-chain valuation.
The MVRV Z-Score, a widely used cycle indicator, stood at about 1.3 as of January 2026. That is far below past cycle tops (7 or higher) but not as cheap as historical lows (0 or below), pointing to \u201cnear fair value.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, Bitcoin is not collapsing because it is absurdly expensive. It is closer to<\/p>\n\n\n\n