{"id":1036,"date":"2026-01-25T10:18:55","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T01:18:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/?p=1036"},"modified":"2026-01-25T10:27:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T01:27:07","slug":"nvidia-h200-china-rubin-165x-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitpress.kr\/en\/nvidia-h200-china-rubin-165x-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia H200 revives in China; Rubin at 165x keeps the 2026 AI crown"},"content":{"rendered":"

The debate over Chinese demand for Nvidia continues. After export controls triggered talk of a \u201ccollapse,\u201d the mood has recently reversed as the U.S. conditionally approved exports of the H200 chip to China. But this is not simply good news. Given the global AI investment cycle and Nvidia\u2019s technology lead, its 2026 growth story remains solid. Here are the latest facts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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China: limited demand returns as rules ease<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Under sweeping U.S. export bans from 2022 to 2024, Nvidia all but gave up selling top-tier GPUs such as the H100 and A100 in China. China\u2019s share of its revenue fell from the 20% range to 13%, while domestic chips such as Huawei\u2019s Ascend surged. Some forecasts even say Nvidia\u2019s share of China\u2019s AI chip market could fall from 66% to 8% in 2026.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January 2026, the U.S. Commerce Department changed course. By introducing \u201ccase-by-case licensing\u201d for the H200 chip**(the next-generation version of the H100, a GPU optimized for AI training with larger memory capacity and higher performance)**, it allowed Chinese cloud companies to place orders of up to 50% of U.S. sales volume, for non-military use only. It is not the explosive demand of the past, but high-end demand from the world\u2019s second-largest market has returned on a limited basis.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key point<\/strong>: China is shifting from a \u201chigh-growth bonus\u201d to a \u201csteady contributor.\u201d The collapse theory is overblown, and the boom theory is a stretch too.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Global AI demand: a 2026 CAPEX surge expected<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the China risk, Nvidia\u2019s main stage is global Big Tech. The data center GPU market is forecast to grow from $20 billion in 2025 to $260 billion in 2035, at 20%-plus a year.<\/a>\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the Big Five\u2019s (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Alibaba) $600 billion in 2026 capital spending, $450 billion is expected to go to AI infrastructure. GPUs are evolving from simple chips into \u201cinfrastructure assets\u201d tied to power and space. Supply bottlenecks also persist, keeping demand > supply through 2026.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nvidia dominates the AI platform with GPUs + networking + CUDA**(Nvidia\u2019s proprietary AI software platform, an ecosystem that does not work on rivals\u2019 chips)**. Its edge is not just in chips but across the whole ecosystem.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nvidia earnings and roadmap: topping $200 billion in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S&P and others expect fiscal 2026 revenue of $205 billion (90% from data centers) and $270 billion in 2027.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n